Madhya Pradesh Elections 2023: Why both Congress and BJP are strategising hard for the tribal vote

MP Election 2023; Historical data from the Madhya Pradesh assembly elections show that whichever of the two parties won more seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes (ST) formed the next state government.

Wary of the Shivraj Singh Chouhan government stealing its yet another big poll promise and immediately implementing the same, the Congress patiently waited till the Model Code of Conduct kicked in to get its star campaigner Priyanka Gandhi Vadra announce the party’s ambitious “Padho-Padhao Yojana” at  Mandla district.

Priyanka promised in poll-bound Madhya Pradesh free education for students between classes 1 and 12 and a monthly scholarship ranging from Rs 500 to Rs 1,500 if her party comes to power in the assembly election slated on November 17.

Congress’s Big Tribal Promise

More significantly, the Congress general secretary promised that in the areas with more than 50 percent tribal population, provisions of the sixth Schedule of the Constitution would be implemented. The Congress has also promised enactment of the Panchayat Extension to Scheduled Areas (PESA) Act, 1996, in Madhya Pradesh.

The PESA act was enacted by the Centre to ensure self-governance through gram sabhas (village assemblies) for people living in scheduled areas. Although the Shivraj government repeatedly promised its promulgation, the Act is yet to reach the ground in its true spirit.

There are 46 recognised Scheduled Tribes across the State’s 54 districts. Of these, six major tribal groups – Bhil, Gond, Kol, Kurku, Sahariya, and Baiga – account for more than 90 percent of the 1.53 crore tribal population.

The Sixth Schedule of the Constitution currently provides for the administration of tribal areas in Assam, Meghalaya, Tripura and Mizoram to safeguard the rights of the tribal population.

Chouhan’s Appropriation Tack

The promises have apparently rattled the BJP for mainly three reasons: One, their scope to woo the voters is wider than the party’s flagship Ladli Bahana Yojana; two, they were announced in a predominantly tribal district; and three, the Model Code of Conduct has deprived the government an opportunity to take the winds out of the Congress sail on this count.

Before the election schedule was notified, the chief minister had managed to appropriate six out of 11 pre-poll promises to the farmers and women made by the Congress because the state government was vested with the power to do so.

Now, at best, the BJP can incorporate a similar or more lucrative promise to the schoolchildren in its manifesto, and, in doing so, expose itself to the allegation of being a copycat.

Significance Of The Tribal Vote

Recognising this, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan targeted the Congress leadership over its promises of free education and cash incentives to students in MP and alleged that the party's state chief, Kamal Nath, is cheating even the Gandhi family by forcing them to make false announcements.

The electoral significance of the place where Priyanka made the potentially “gamechanger” promise is not lost on any one. Mandla in Mahakoshal region is one of the predominantly tribal districts.

The Congress, which won 31 out of the 47 seats reserved for the Scheduled Tribes (STs), in the  2018 poll, is aiming to increase its tally in the coming assembly election. Priyanka and Rahul Gandhi together have addressed election rallies in four tribal-dominated districts. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, too, focused especially on tribal districts for campaigning in Madhya Pradesh the last two months.

Historical data from the Madhya Pradesh assembly elections show that whichever of the two parties – the BJP and the Congress – won more seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes (ST) formed the next state government. The Congress owed its victories in Madhya Pradesh till 2003 – to a great extent – to the steadfast support it continued to get from the various tribal communities who together account for 21 percent of the state’s population.

In the three successive assembly elections since 2003, tribal votes shifted to the BJP, ensuring its victories. In the 2018 election, however, the Congress managed to woo back the tribals in substantial numbers.

While the Congress is unsparing in its efforts to further broad-base its sway on the tribal belts, the BJP, too, is fiercely competing with the rival to regain the trust that the community lost in the party in 2018.

BJP’s Early Start And Headwinds

The BJP campaign for 2023 can be said to have begun in earnest way back in September 2021 itself  when Union Home Minister Amit Shah participated in a function to mark the martyrdom of tribal king Shankar Shah and his son Raghunath Shah.

The Jabalpur conclave was followed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi rechristening Bhopal’s Habibganj railway station after the name of Gond queen Rani Kamalapati in November 2021. A slew of state-sponsored tribal congregations followed in various tribal regions across the state which witnessed Chief Minister Chouhan announcing a plethora of welfare schemes for the community.

However, these announcements have been  more in the nature of tokenism and have failed to address the real worries of the tribals. The tribals expect the state government to ensure their security with dignity, without them having to jettison their culture and deities.

Incidents such as urination by a BJP worker on the face of a tribal that was caught on video and went viral in July this year have deepened the tribal mistrust of the saffron party.Madhya Pradesh ranking on top in cases of atrocities against tribals in India, according to the National Crime Record Bureau, hasn’t helped either.

The BJP is expected to release its election manifesto soon. And this could determine if its promises are more concrete and reassuring than the Congress’s for improving the lot of the tribals.

Rakesh Dixit is a senior journalist based in Bhopal. Views are personal, and do not represent the stand of this publication.