Madhya Pradesh election results 2023: Modi's influence casts shadow on Congress' prospects

In the 2018 assembly elections, Congress bagged 114 seats and formed the government with the help of BSP, SP and independent MLAs under the leadership of Kamal Nath.

Elections for the 230-member Madhya Pradesh assembly took place on November 17. The election showcased prominent contenders, including the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress, Samajwadi Party (SP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), and Communist Party of India (Marxist). However, the primary competition in the major state of the Hindi-speaking belt remained between the BJP and Congress. Both parties launched high-energy campaigns, showcasing their top leaders and making numerous promises to appeal to voters across the state.

Ahead of the election result on December 3, most exit polls indicated that the BJP would lead in Madhya Pradesh. Exit polls by India Today-Axis My India, News 24-Chanakya, and India TV-CNX predict a massive victory for the BJP. According to India Today-Axis My India, the BJP may get 140-162 seats, while the Congress may bag 68-90 seats. News 24-Chanakya predicted 151 seats for the BJP and 74 for Congress (both with an error margin of 12). India TV-CNX stated that 140-159 seats may go to the the BJP while Congress could get 70-89. However, the Jan Ki Baat poll showed the BJP would win 102-125 seats, and the Congress would get 100-123 seats. The majority in the state assembly is 116.

In the 2018 assembly elections, Congress bagged 114 seats and formed the government with the help of BSP, SP, and independent MLAs under the leadership of Kamal Nath. However, the government fell after 15 months in March 2020 when 22 Jyotiraditya Scindia loyalists walked out of the party with their leader to later join the BJP.

Initially, the Congress seemed to have many things going for it in the 2023 state assembly elections. Countering Chief Minister Shivraj Chouhan’s welfare schemes including “Ladli Bahna Yojana,” the Congress offered a slew of measures such as aid of Rs 1,500 per month to women, free power till 100 units, and half of the bill till 200 units, gas cylinders at Rs 500, and Rs 25 lakh health insurance to citizens, among other things. While promising a caste census, if elected to power, Congress also promised a 37 percent OBC quota to counter PM Modi's appeal among the OBC voters. Throughout his campaign, Congress veteran Kamal Nath highlighted his initiative in constructing a 101-ft-tall Hanuman statue in his turf Chhindwara to counter BJP’s usual Hindutva campaign.

Meanwhile, the recurring question was if the four-time Chief Minister Chouhan would be able to counter anti-incumbency to script the BJP’s victory. The party also realized it and did not name any chief ministerial candidate.

While the Congress fielded Kamal Nath as its CM face, the BJP pitched Prime Minister Narendra Modi as its mascot with the electoral theme “Modi Ke Mann Mein MP” (MP close to Modi’s heart) and the slogan “Phir Is Baar BJP Sarkar” (BJP government once again).

The move of not projecting Chouhan as the CM candidate and making Modi the face of the campaign may have worked for the BJP. The “Modi wave” may have overridden the “fatigue factor” said to be related to Chouhan as he has been holding the office for over a decade. “Modi, not Shivraj, is the face of BJP. Most people don’t even know who the local candidate is. We vote for the party for Modi and Modi alone,” a farmer in Ujjain had told the Economic Times before the polls.

To neutralize perceived anti-incumbency, the BJP brass put into the fray several high-profile leaders, including Union Ministers Narendra Singh Tomar, Prahlad Patel, and Faggan Singh, and national party general secretary Kailash Vijayvargiya.

"All this, with power-packed campaigning at the grassroots level, star-studded rallies, and road shows helped the BJP gain back the trust of people and pushed the party into a position that made the otherwise confident Congress rattle," a BJP insider told India Today.