Karnataka Elections: If Congress wins , what does this mean for the BJP?

The Congress party had targeted winning 150 seats in the Karnataka assembly elections. However, the exit polls on May 10 predicted the party will have a slight edge, but it remains to be seen how accurate those predictions are.

According to pollsters, Karnataka will witness a hung assembly and the Grand Old Party is projected to win just under 110 seats. A simple majority requires a minimum of 113 seats, in a House with 224 elected members and one nominated member.

Exit poll prediction by News Nation-CGS has predicted a majority for the ruling BJP with 114 seats, while Zee News-Matrizo and ABP News-C Voter have precited a simple majority to Congress.

Karnataka recorded a voter turnout of 65.98 percent. In the 2018 assembly elections, the state had seen a voter turnout of 72.13 percent.

The projections have also forecasted that Janata Dal (Secular) will be a kingmaker in the state, and it has been tipped to get 25 to 33 seats in the assembly elections.

Pollsters suggest with such numbers, Congress will have an upper hand in government formation following which it will add one more state to its tally. Currently, the party is in power in three states: Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Himachal Pradesh.

Read: The battle between Amul and Nandini in poll-bound Karnataka, explained

Meanwhile, the BJP, which currently rules the state, is predicted to secure seats under 100, which is a decline from its 2018 performance, when it won 104 seats.

What victory means for Congress? 

Political observers believe that a Congress victory in the state would demonstrate the party's ability to field a strong cadre and leadership team capable of competing in challenging political contests.

“A Congress majority in Karnataka could bolster the party's prospects in upcoming state elections such as those in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan later this year. Additionally, such a victory would impede the BJP's chances of winning Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka during the 2024 elections,” said political analyst Rasheed Kidwai.

A victory will also indicate that the Congress party has remained committed to its core ideology and has not wavered from its stance. During the pre-election campaign period, the BJP had challenged Sonia Gandhi's “Karnataka sovereignty” statement, but the Congress leadership had steadfastly defended it, added Kidwai.

Despite scathing political attacks, the party also didn’t back down from its manifesto, where it even talked about banning the Bajrang Dal, he said.

The Congress party's manifesto for the Karnataka Assembly elections drew attention for equating the banned Islamic organisation Popular Front of India (PFI) with the Bajrang Dal, the youth wing of the Sangh-affiliated Vishwa Hindu Parishad.

The manifesto stated that the party would prohibit any organisation that promotes “enmity or hatred” among minority or majority communities.

“If the Congress party fails to secure a victory in the Karnataka election, it would suggest that the party's strategies are ineffective and that only Modi’s charisma is driving success for the BJP in various states,” he said.

Read more: How the Congress can gain from the BJP sidelining its Lingayat leaders

Niranjan Sahoo, a senior fellow with the Observer Research Foundation's Governance and Politics Initiative, remarked that a victory for the Congress party in the Karnataka election would demonstrate that the party had made a sound decision in selecting Mallikarjun Kharge as party president, with the leader securing a victory in his home state.

“With similar levels of synergy and effective social media management, the Congress party could perform well in upcoming elections as well,” said Sahoo.

The victory will also reflect that the party had decentralised leadership as two leaders, including former chief minister Siddaramiah and DK Shivakumar, were seen reaching out to people for months before the poll was announced.

What does the loss mean for the ruling BJP?

Karnataka is the sole southern state where the BJP is currently in power, and the party has been striving to expand its presence in other states such as Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

Political analysts suggest that the BJP's aspirations for a significant gain in southern India could be dashed by the loss in Karnataka, particularly as it prepares for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

“It will be a setback for the BJP, which made strong attempts to come to power in Karnataka. The BJP did not fight the elections behind chief minister Basavaraj Bommai’s face — it is Narendra Modi who was leading the party. If the party is voted out of power, it will be a boost not only to Congress but regional parties also,” said Kidwai.

The saffron party will have to realise that leadership in linguistic states should be strong and should be left to locals only, he added. The Congress did not perform well in Gujarat because they do not have a Gujarati national leader in the party, remarked Kidwai.

“Ahmed Patel’s role as a national leader of Congress in 2017 helped the party to secure a comfortable number in opposition. However, after his death, the outcome of the 2022 Gujarat Assembly election was clear to everyone.”

Weighing in, Sahoo said, “It will also be a reminder for the BJP that state elections are fought on local issues, which are important for the people. During the campaign, the BJP talked about terrorism and the corruption of Congress when it was in power, whereas people on the ground are expecting speeches and statements on rising prices, inflation, and unemployment.”