Assembly Elections 2023: PM Modi’s visit to Birsa Munda’s village reflects the centrality of the tribal vote

Assembly Elections 2023

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the village of Birsa Munda – who is worshipped as Bhagwan by tribals in Jharkhand – to launch the Rs 24,000 crore Pradhan Mantri Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Group Development Mission (PMVTG) is a politically significant move by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) ahead of the next phase of polling in the ongoing assembly elections and the Lok Sabha poll next year.

BJP is eyeing immediate political dividends from the launch of the mission in the assembly polls in four states – Madhya Pradesh (MP), Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Telangana – where reversing the trend of 2018 is crucial for the party’s success. The tribal vote base is also crucial for BJP to defend the 2019 verdict of 303 Lok Sabha seats.

BJP’s losses in the 2018 Assembly elections in MP, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan were largely attributed to the party ceding political spaces to Congress among tribal support groups. The Congress had bagged 30 of the 47 assembly seats in MP reserved for the tribals in 2018. In the 2013 polls, BJP had won a similar number of seats.

In Chhattisgarh, Congress had dominated the tribal dominated areas by winning 25 of the 29 reserved seats for STs. Chhattisgarh has almost 31 percent tribal population. There are almost 105 assembly seats in MP where the tribal vote base matters. Rajasthan also has 25 reserved seats for STs.

Modi Appeal Among Tribals

While Congress had taken pole position in 2018 in Chhattisgarh, Modi’s popularity was proven intact just six months later as BJP polled 51 percent vote share in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections to win nine of the 11 parliamentary constituencies in the state. BJP repeated the feat in MP and Rajasthan also. Elsewhere, BJP rode the Modi magic to win big in Karnataka and Jharkhand in 2019 despite contrasting outcomes in the assembly polls.

Since then, Modi has sought to build further inroads among the tribal vote base by officially declaring November 15 as the Janjatiya Gaurav Diwas. The PM as part of the commemoration of “Amrit Kaal” laid special emphasis on celebrating and documenting local icons who fought for freedom with a thrust on tribal icons.

With Modi at helm, Parliament has enacted amendments to the states’ lists of STs to include several groups who had been demanding scheduled tribe status. Besides, a number of tribal museums across the country have been opened while railway stations have also been renamed after tribal icons.

Tribal Votes For Another Triple Century

BJP had bagged 303 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 with an all-round domination in the tribal dominated seats. The swelling of BJP’s kitty was also on account of winning 18 seats in West Bengal, lapping up five of the six tribal dominated constituencies there. BJP had also announced its arrival in  Odisha politics in a big way by winning eight of the 20 Lok Sabha seats in the 2019 general election.

In short,  BJP won 31 of the 47 tribal reserved Lok Sabha seats in 2019. The increased victory margin in 2019 was majorly because of huge gains in the reserved seats. In the first national executive meeting of this year, BJP chief JP Nadda gave a call to party workers to further energise their outreach to tribal communities.

This was reflected in the Modi government acceding to the demands of the extremely backward groups for inclusion in the Scheduled Tribes and action on this front for several states such as Tamil Nadu, Tripura, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

Vacuum In State Leadership

The Basavaraj Bommai government in Karnataka had raised the reservation for STs from three to seven percent and 15 to 17 percent for SC before the assembly polls in May. Yet, BJP lost 39 of the 51 reserved assembly seats. In Jharkhand, the BJP-AJSU alliance had bagged 12 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in 2019. But BJP could win only two of the 28 reserved seats for the STs in the Assembly election held a few months after the Lok Sabha polls.

Evidently, the tribal vote base has been making a distinction between the Lok Sabha elections and the state polls. BJP sensed the challenge and embarked on a course correction to find strong local leaders from among the STs and spotlight them.

Thus, Babulal Marandi was brought back at the helm of the party affairs in Jharkhand. To deny any scope for leadership confusion, former chief minister Raghubar Das, 68, was uprooted from state politics and appointed Governor of Odisha.

Union ministers Faggan Kulaste and Renuka Singh were fielded in the Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh polls to warm up to tribal communities and bolster the local tribal leadership in the state elections.

Seeking To Put Congress On The Mat

Modi visited Mangarh in Rajasthan last year ahead of the Gujarat Assembly election to pay tribute to 1,500 tribals who were massacred by the British in 1913. Mangarh lies in a region bordering Gujarat, and is reckoned to have influence over almost 95 assembly seats spread over Gujarat, Rajasthan, and MP.

Modi’s visit was part of his thrust to bring the tribal struggle against British rule to the public limelight. The electoral outcome was resounding as BJP won 24 of the 27 assembly seats reserved for the STs in Gujarat.

BJP is chasing the tribal vote base knowing the road to 2024 will see the Congress as its principal foe, which has traditionally counted on tribals for political revival. Congress has high hopes from MP, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan to cement its centrality in the Opposition block, and such a prospect vexes the BJP no end.

Manish Anand is a senior Delhi-based journalist. Views are personal, and do not represent the stance of this publication.