Why Assam has consistently recorded high voter turnout in Lok Sabha polls

The electorate in Assam

An estimated 81.71% of the eligible voters exercised their franchise in third phase held across four Lok Sabha constituencies in Assam.

With the completion of voting in these four seats, the voting process in the crucial state of northeastern state comes to an end.

Political observers attribute the high voter turnout to multiple factors- ranging from poll issues being intricately linked to sub-regional issues to overt desire for change among a section of the voting population.

Even though Dhubri (a constituency with an overwhelming Muslim populace) with 86 per cent topped the list in terms of voter turnout, it fell marginally since 2019 when it recorded 91 per cent. The final polling percentage could be further revised as compilation of figures are yet to be completed, according to Election Commission officials.

Dhubri recorded the highest polling percentage of 86.80 per cent, followed by Barpeta with 81.02 per cent, Kokrajhar with 80.44 per cent and Guwahati the lowest at 75.67 per cent.

The first phase of polling in the state recorded a 78% voter turnout, with a peak of 81% in the second phase.

When poll issues are closely tied to sub-regional identity

Speaking to Moneycontrol, Dr. Kaustubh Deka, assistant professor, Political Science, Dibrugarh University, says in Assam the polls issues are intricately tied to regional-ethnic issues. Emotive issues play a big role in driving people to appear in record numbers during polling. He also pointed out that many of the Lok Sabha constituencies in the state that witnessed over 80 per cent voting has a sizeable minority population. Issues such as NRC and CAA have had a great impact on the minds of the voters. Even in 2019, the voters had appeared in record-numbers.

He also pointed out that the urban-rural disparity in terms of the voter turnout is quite stark. The urban parts of the state have not recorded such high turnout compared to the rural areas. The overall figure in the state has been bolstered by voter participation in rural areas.

The dip in numbers from 2019

Explaining the slight dip in voting percentage from 2019, the academician says that the fall in numbers is sync with the overall all-India figure. The general apathy among a section of electorate has rubbed into the citizens of Assam too. “One should not read too much into this slight dip as the figures are still high compared to the all-India figures”.

How the issue of delimitation took center stage in polls

The focus in Assam during the recently held parliamentary polls was mainly on the delimitation exercise. The effect of the exercise is likely to shape outcomes in key seats. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which has strengthened in this crucial-northeastern state, has been asserting that it will further increase its tally in the state.

At the moment, the party has 10 of the 14 parliamentary seats. During the campaign trail, top BJP leaders underlined that allies and United People’s Party Liberal and Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) would help the party increase its tally to “at least 12”.

The demographic change in Barpeta and Dhubri 

The delimitation exercise has led to major changes in the demographic profiles of key seats. A major change of the nature of a constituency took place in Barpeta in western Assam. Barpeta was a Muslim-majority seat and was earlier represented by Muslim MPs from the Congress and the All Indian United Democratic Front (AIUDF).

With the transfer of several Muslim majority belts to the neighbouring Dhubri constituency, which already had over 75% of Muslim voters, the Muslim voters in the Barpeta came down to about 30%.

Sizeable youth voters

Shangky Khongwar, a guest faculty, at National Law University and Judicial Academy, Guwahati attributes the high turnout in Assam to youth voters turning up in record numbers. “There is a feeling of disenchantment among the youth with certain policies of the present dispensation. However, the disenchantment will not affect the electoral outcome in favour of Congress.

"A trend that I have noticed during preliminary research and interaction with the youth is that they have chosen to vote for regional outfits like Asom Gana Parishad, United People's Party Liberal and Bodoland People's Front. So in terms of the electoral outcome, it will benefit the BJP-led alliance as the regional parties are an ally of the saffron party in the state," observed Khongwar.