Lok Sabha elections: How Modhwadia and Der's exit spells trouble for Congress in Gujarat

With Arjun Modhwadia’s exit, the Congress doesn’t have a Mer leader to represent the party in Porbandar.

Ahead of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra made its way into Gujarat, senior legislator Arjun Modhwadia and the party's state unit working president Ambarish Der tendered their resignations from the party and switched allegiance to the BJP.

Both leaders cited the Congress leadership's refusal to participate in the Ram Temple consecration in Ayodhya on January 22 as their reason for distancing themselves from the Grand Old Party. Modhwadia further accused Gandhi of instigating turmoil in Assam, which, he claimed, provoked the party cadre and citizens of India.

Navsari district president Dharmesh Bhim Patel also resigned from the Congress along with these two leaders in the BJP-ruled state.

Congress in a spot

These resignations have put the Congress in a challenging position ahead of Gandhi’s yatra and the Lok Sabha elections. Modhwadia's resignation marks the third departure from the Congress, following Chirag Patel and CJ Chavda, who resigned in December and January, respectively. With Modhwadia's resignation, the Congress representation in the 182-member Assembly has decreased to 14 from 17.

Likely blow to OBC vote bank

Modhwadia (67), who held the Porbandar seat, was a prominent OBC figure in the state. His victory over BJP’s Babu Bokhiria in the 2022 assembly elections underscored his significance. Moreover, he enjoyed a close association with the late Congress leader Ahmed Patel. With Modhwadia and Der's resignations, there is speculation that the party's OBC votes may gravitate towards the BJP.

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With OBCs constituting nearly 52 percent of the state’s population, their significance cannot be overlooked by any party in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections. Modhwadia's departure leaves the Congress without a prominent leader to represent the party in Porbandar. The Mers, a pastoral community, comprise a substantial portion of the population in coastal Saurashtra, second only to the Ahirs. Plus, the Congress will now lack a prominent figure in Saurashtra and the surrounding coastal regions.

Der, an Ahir leader, was known to be close to Modhwadia. He was also popular in Amreli district which is dominated by Ahirs and Patels. Without Der, the Congress loses its face for Ahir voters.

“Modhwadia and Der’s resignations come as an embarrassment for the Congress, which is bleeding out leaders. The party is unable to figure out why their heavyweights are abandoning ship one by one. Even after the resignation of the two MLAs, the Gujarat Congress played it down calling it a conspiracy by the BJP, “Gauraang Jani, an Ahmedabad-based sociologist told The Federal.

Meanwhile, Gandhi’s yatra is scheduled to enter Gujarat on March 7 in the afternoon. Over the next four days, it will traverse a distance of approximately 400km, spanning across seven districts. “Thousands of party workers have toiled tirelessly day and night to secure victory for a leader. Arjunbhai (Modhwadia) should bear this in mind... I also want to ask the BJP that despite their three-decade-long rule in Gujarat, why do they rely on turncoats during elections,” Gujarat Congress spokesperson Manish Doshi told the Hindustan Times.

The BJP aims to secure all 26 Lok Sabha seats in Gujarat which is the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah.