Karnataka was one of the few positives, the Congress could hold onto in 2023. Under the leadership of Siddaramaiah and D.K. Shivakumar, it successfully outsmarted the BJP and formed the state government with a comfortable majority. The victory galvanized the Congress and raised hopes of the party’s revival. Focusing on the local along with the five guarantees were critical in the Congress’ road to success. While the Congress would be tempted to adopt a similar strategy this time around, it needs to be seen if it can strike the right chord among the voters. Another key element to the Congress’ success last year was a united leadership at the state level. D.K. Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah managed to put aside their differences. Can a similar united effort be put up this time around? Finally, there is a question of ticket distribution. While the initial two lists have been released, the fact that no state minister and many sitting MLAs were unwilling to contest, is a major cause for concern. In some ways, it reflects the unwillingness of the state Congress leaders to move away from positions of power to a possible defeat and a dent in their political credibility.
In 2023, the Congress’ five promises were a critical factor in its victory. It also appealed to a wide spread disenchantment with the BJP’s Bommai led state government. The Congress succeeded in bringing the focus on local issues and state level leadership. This helped them counter the BJP’s strategy of focusing on national level issues and the central leadership. The Congress premium on the local put the BJP in a vulnerable position and exposed the weakness of its state level leadership. This time around, the Congress’ best chance lies in repeating its 2023 strategy and bringing the focus once again on local issues. Developments over the last two months clearly indicate a move in this direction. In early February, Siddharamaiah, D.K. Shivakumar and other members of the Congress’ Karnataka leadership travelled to Delhi to protest against the ‘non-allocation’ of Karnataka’s share of GST revenue. The central government was branded as working against ‘Kannada’ interests. Within weeks of this issue, the state government passed an order requiring all signboards to have 60% of all written content in Kannada. This was an attempt to awaken the sub-national Kannada linguistic identity. The party hoped that this would help shift the focus to regional issues, it will also have them counter the BJP’s pan-India nationalism. However, it needs to be seen whether it would have salience in a national election.
Despite a strong emphasis on the regional identity and local issues, it may well not be able to guarantee the Congress electoral dividends similar to 2023. While there may be challenges with the state level leadership, the BJP’s central leadership and Modi in particular remain very popular. The Karnataka voter has shown in the past that in Lok Sabha elections, they caste their vote based on national issues. The Congress will need to reverse this trend, if it has to dent the BJP. It would require a sustained focus on BJP’s state level leadership and capitalizing on anti-incumbency against certain sitting BJP MPs.
Ticket distribution is generally a very messy process with numerous leaders lobbying for a seat. In the BJP, this process has led to internal divisions with senior leaders highlighting their displeasure at being denied a ticket. The Congress on the other hand faced the opposite problem. They party had a tough time convincing winnable candidates from contesting elections. Instead, the MLAs and ministers have lobbied for their children and relations to be given seats, in their place. As a result, the children of five state cabinet ministers have been named as candidates. This brings with it some major concerns. Firstly, the fact that MLAs and state ministers are unwilling to contest could indicate the Congress’ weakness on the ground. They are not be willing to give up their existing positions to contest a risky election that they may not land up winning. It could also suggest that many of these leaders see the NDA having the momentum. Even if they manage to go to the Lok Sabha as MPs, they will most likely have to sit in the opposition. Holding on to ministerial posts in the state government is a more tempting alternative. Secondly, several of these candidates are fighting elections for the first time. While the fact that these are fresh faces could bring with it advantages, their inexperience could prove to be costly. Thirdly, fielding children or relatives of existing ministers opens them up to attacks from the BJP. As recently as March 5th the Prime Minister raised the issue of ‘parivarvaad’.
Finally, there is the issue of the BJP-JDS alliance. In 2023, the BJP’s vote share gains in JDS’ Mysore Karnataka stronghold benefitted the Congress. With Vokkaliga votes split between the three parties, the Congress managed to bag a majority of the seats from this region. If the BJP and JDS strike the right chemistry on the ground, this could prove to be trouble for the Congress. In old Mysore region, the key for the Congress is to consolidate the Vokkaliga votes. If not, the alliance could give the JDS-BJP combine the upper hand.
Less than a year after the 2023 Karnataka assembly elections, the Congress, BJP and JD(S) are once again preparing for the electoral battle. Given the results in the assembly elections, one might come to the conclusion that the momentum is with the Congress. While they are indeed better placed in Karnataka when compared to Utter Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh or even Gujarat, the BJP is a formidable force when it comes to the Lok Sabha polls. With the Prime Minister and the central leadership still very popular, the Congress has its task cut out. It will need to build a sustained emphasis on local issues and exploit the internal divisions within BJP’s state level leadership. Besides, Congress will need to build internal cohesion within its Karnataka leadership. With many ministers and MLAs reluctant to contest, this is going to be a challenge.
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