Lok Sabha Elections: Can Andhra Pradesh unlock the south for NDA?

Andhra Pradesh CM Jagan Mohan Reddy, TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu among early voters

In Andhra Pradesh, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), comprising the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), the Chandrababu Naidu-led Telugu Desam Party (TDP), and the Jana Sena Party (JSP), is gearing up for a high-octane face-off with Jagan Reddy's YSR Congress.

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Over the years, the BJP has managed to increase its seat and. vote share in the south, but its performance has not quite mirrored the party's absolute dominance in the northern states, especially since 2014.

A look back

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the party won 29  of the 130 seats in the southern states with a combined vote share of 18 percent. Though it won the highest number of seats compared to other national parties, its strike rate remained sub-par, at just 33 percent.

The BJP’s key ally in Andhra Pradesh, the TDP, ruled the roost in the state, enjoying an unbeatable winning spree till 2014.

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In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the first Lok Sabha elections in the state following its bifurcation, the NDA secured 17 seats, and 48 percent vote share, while YSRCP claimed eight seats, with 46 percent vote share. In the corresponding Assembly elections, the NDA clinched 106 seats, while YSRCP won 67, with respective vote shares of 47 and 45 percent.

In the 2019 elections, the YSRCP won 22 Lok Sabha seats with a commanding 50 percent vote share, while the TDP, following its split from the BJP, secured only three seats, with a 40 percent vote share. The JSP and BJP secured six and one percent of the votes, respectively.

In the  Assembly elections that year, the YSRCP won resoundingly, securing  151 of the 175 seats and 50 percent of the vote share, while the TDP was reduced to just 23 seats, and 39 percent of the vote share.

Battleground 2024

This time though, Naidu's two-month-long incarceration in September 2023  seems to have created a sympathy wave for the former CM. Besides, the subsequent migration of a number of YSRCP candidates to TDP has further boosted the prospects of the NDA camp in both the Lok Sabha as well as the Assembly elections due to be held on May 13.

The BJP is now focussed on a state-specific approach, as evident from the NDA manifesto unveiled on April 30. The manifesto's focal point is the 'super six' scheme, featuring initiatives such as a monthly pension of Rs 1,500 for women aged 19 to 59, creation of 20 lakh jobs for youth or a monthly unemployment aid of Rs 3,000, and free bus travel for women. The focus on women is another attempt by the NDA to trump the Congress, which enjoys a wider presence in the southern states and has promised a multitude of schemes for women in its manifesto.

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Additionally, the increased number of visits by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the run-up to the polls has made it evident that Andhra Pradesh is a key part of NDA’s strategy. While PM Modi’s popularity in the urban areas will likely solidify the NDA’s support base, the TDP is banking on JSP’s Pawan Kalyan for its share of Kapu votes. Kapus, who comprise 20 to 22 percent of the electorate, hold the key to victory in coastal Andhra.

The BJP leadership acknowledges that reaching the ambitious target of 400+ seats is challenging, especially without bolstering its presence in the south, where it does not currently dominate the political landscape. Andhra Pradesh may play a key role, therefore, in helping NDA get closer to its goal.

Data map sourced from Pollniti.com