Monsoon misses Delhi again and again - Why are IMD forecasts falling flat this season?

Delhi rain

An anti-cyclonic system is still blocking the arrival of the monsoon in Delhi, keeping the rains at bay even as much of the country experiences seasonal downpours. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday said the monsoon trough was positioned south of the Capital, which is stopping it from moving further north.

What’s holding the monsoon back?

The primary reason for the delay is the anti-cyclonic circulation, a system of high pressure, at the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere over Delhi and nearby regions. According to the IMD officials, this system is acting like a wall, blocking the northward movement of the monsoon winds. This ridge of high pressure has disrupted the typical wind and circulation patterns, keeping the monsoon trough well to the south of Delhi, Hindustan Times reported.

While areas in Rajasthan, Haryana, and Punjab have already started receiving rainfall, Delhi and nearby narrow belts to the west and east remain dry. On the IMD’s monsoon map, the northern limit of the monsoon currently passes through cities like Jaisalmer, Bikaner, Sonipat, and Rampur, but skips over Delhi.

Changing forecasts

The meteorological department had initially predicted that the monsoon would reach Delhi on June 24, but that did not happen. It was then expected to arrive on Wednesday, but once again, the forecast did not materialise. The IMD revised its prediction, stating that the monsoon will likely hit the capital on Thursday, but it failed again.

When will the monsoon arrive?

According to the IMD, the current weather pattern is likely to change in the next 3 to 4 days. The east-west monsoon trough is expected to shift northward, while the anti-cyclonic ridge is predicted to weaken, both of which could allow the monsoon to enter Delhi. However, no official date has been predicted this time.

Mahesh Palawat of Skymet Weather said a cyclonic circulation over central Uttar Pradesh will help pull moisture-laden winds toward the Capital. Former Earth Sciences Ministry secretary M Rajeevan told HT that model projections suggest Delhi will receive monsoon rains by June 28 or 29, and the entire country should be covered by June 30.

Weather conditions in Delhi

In the absence of rain, Delhi has been experiencing hot and humid weather. On Thursday, the city recorded a heat index of 49.7 degrees Celsius, while the maximum temperature touched 38 degrees Celsius, slightly above normal. Humidity levels have been high, ranging between 54 per cent and 85 per cent.