Moneycontrol Pro Panorama | A mix of relief, anxiety for markets as Trump checks in

Donald Trump may as well be planning to use tariffs as a negotiating ploy.

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Equity markets gave a mixed reaction to Donald Trump’s inauguration as the President of the United States (US). Stock markets in India dropped while those in China gained as the US President refrained from signing off on tariffs on major trading partners in his first day in office.

“It is far too soon to declare that the worst of the tariff threat has passed. But certainly, Day One has gone much better for international trade than most had feared,” Chris Turner, global head of markets and regional head of research for UK and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) at ING, said in a note.

Of course, tariffs are not off the table. Trump threatened to impose 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico and instructed government agencies to evaluate trade polices of China and other trading partners, reported The Wall Street Journal. On his first day in office, Trump issued a series of orders targeting border security, energy policies and diversity programmes of the Biden administration.

Trump may as well be planning to use tariffs as a negotiating ploy, as this piece from the Financial Times argues. Even then, the developments are inducing volatility in markets. The greenback gained against the Canadian and Mexican currencies. Cryptocurrency Bitcoin rose to new highs. Prices of gold and silver eased in Tuesday trade. A renewed focus on local manufacturing and trade can weigh on prices of commodities, warn analysts.

On the positive side, India may have an ally in billionaire businessman Elon Musk who favours deepening of trade relationship with the US, writes Abhijit Kumar Dutta. Musk is a big donor and supporter of Trump and seen as part of the President's inner circle.

Still, much remains unclear. More clarity will emerge as Trump and his new team settle in the White House.

“The economic impact of Trump’s tariff policies will depend on the scale, sequencing of implementation, potential retaliation from trading partners, and geopolitical impulses,” write Neha Dave and Anubhav Sahu in this piece on the potential impact of Trump’s second presidency on equity markets.

The uncertainty on the global trade front does not bode well for Indian stock markets that are trading at high valuations. Government and monetary policy authorities should prepare for the possible impact of US trade policies and retaliatory measures from others, warn economists.

In corporate earnings, Zomato’s rapid expansion into quick commerce has adversely impacted its profit margins in Q3 FY25, triggering a sell-off in its stock, affecting rival Swiggy's stock price as well. The moderation in growth in its food delivery business and elevated investments in Quick Commerce are leading to a reset of earnings estimates. You can read Ravi Ananthanarayanan's story on the risk this poses for key stakeholders in Quick Commerce
here and our research team’s analysis of Zomato’s results here.

Investing insights from our research team

Karur Vysya Bank Q3 FY25 — good execution in a challenging environment
Dixon Technologies: Transforming into a behemoth

Metro Brands resumes double-digit earnings growth

Tracker

Pro Economic Tracker: Auto retail sales, consumer sentiment weaken, labour participation improves

What else are we reading?

Why traders should go in for ‘Dal Chaawal’ style of trading in 2025
Budget Snapshot: India’s spending on healthcare rises, focus should turn to capacity build-up

Can agents whip up profitable growth for SBI Life?

New Budget to focus on fiscal prudence and growth

Budget needs to start correcting India’s lopsided defence spending

Fali Nariman’s acute observations are a launch pad for research on Constitutional issues

Smriti Irani—all set to make an impact in WEF2025 at Davos

Markets

Rural could be a key beneficiary of Budget 2025; right time to invest despite long periods of underperformance, says ICICI Pru MF’s Priyanka Khandelwal

Tech and Startups
IT companies see healthiest recovery in the last 1.5 years in Q3FY25 earnings

Technical Picks: COLPAL, ITC, HINDOILEXP, HINDUNILVR
R Sree RamMoneycontrol Pro