BUSINESS
China’s Real Estate Woes: How bad can things get? — Part 2
Defaults by the top two real estate developers to falling property sales to defaulting Trust product issuers provide a glimpse of the issues facing the Chinese real estate sector. The broader fix for the crisis can only be from the government
BUSINESS
China’s Real Estate Woes: How bad can things get?
At the peak of the US property boom, about $900 billion a year was being invested in residential real estate. In the 12 months ended June 2020, about $1.4 trillion was invested in Chinese housing
BUSINESS
Higher for longer theme may lead to broad selloff across risk assets
The Fed is more hawkish than the market and under its higher-for-longer interest-rate scenario, real yields could go up again
BUSINESS
China’s underwhelming response to its economic woes has global consequences
China’s size means a slowdown there will pull down global growth. It’s time for the Chinese government and policymakers to introduce confidence-boosting measures
BUSINESS
A downgrade, resilient jobs, incoming higher inflation: How should market read them all?
Consensus for the US economy has moved from a mild recession to a soft landing or a no-landing-at all scenario, encouraging investors to take on more risk
BUSINESS
Investing in risk-on times: Peak inflation, peak dollar, peak rates pose a challenge
Many investors have held more cash than usual in anticipation of higher interest rates. But policy rates are now approaching a peak
BUSINESS
The three questions that investors should track in this news-filled week
There’s no dearth of market-moving news this week, with the US Fed decision, China’s stimulus or not, and signals from US earnings
BUSINESS
What a Skip-Hike US Fed cycle implies for a market in FOMO mode
The euphoria in markets indicates investors are pencilling a ‘one and done’ scenario for rate hikes, followed by rate cuts soon, ignoring forecasts. What could go wrong?
BUSINESS
Where is the Recession?
In their mid-year 2023 projections, most analysts have turned the most anticipated” recession into the “most postponed” one
BUSINESS
Managing a soft landing amid soaring markets and stubborn inflation: The challenge of the second half of 2023
The first half was a tale of forecasts of recession and peak interest rates gone wrong. The bulls are in the ascendant. What’s the second half looking like?
BUSINESS
Wagner’s Gambit: Non-event or heralding post-Putin era?
Markets have taken the weekend drama in Russia as a non-event for now, but certain red lines have been crossed forever
BUSINESS
The impact of El Nino on global inflation, GDP, agriculture and commodity prices
The multifaceted impact of El Niño ranges from food insecurity, falling fishing yields, inflation, floods, droughts, and the price of oil as well as other commodity prices
BUSINESS
Will the Fed skip, pause, pivot or skip, hike, pause, pivot?
Fed officials have indicated that a pause is justified while emphasising that skipping a rate increase in June doesn’t mean they can’t deliver a hike at a later date
BUSINESS
Are we at peak China?
The much-hoped for post-COVID rebound in China has failed to materialise, dragging down prospects of global growth
BUSINESS
What is driving the US stock market higher this year?
The current rally in the US markets has been full of surprises, as it has come at a time when central banks have been raising interest rates and growth is expected to slow down
BUSINESS
The recurring farce of a US debt default
Wrangling about the debt ceiling is political grandstanding. While everyone expects a last minute settlement, it's worth remembering that a similar impasse in 2011 resulted in a ratings downgrade for the US and nervousness in the markets
BUSINESS
King Dollar and Queen Gold are here to stay
Growing geopolitical uncertainty is a common factor that is making the US dollar and gold hard to ignore for investors. For the dollar, its lion’s share in central bank reserves and all cross-border deals ensures its supremacy
BUSINESS
Are we near the Fed rate hike pause level yet?
Fed futures are reflecting an 87 percent probability of a rate hike of 25 bps in May and of a 22 percent rate hike in the June FOMC meet
BUSINESS
Investors are being too optimistic on rate cuts and not pessimistic enough on recession: Bank of America warning
During eight of the last 10 recessions, the S&P 500 experienced drawdowns of more than 20 percent
BUSINESS
Global asset returns show true market risk lies in its complacency
It was a rollercoaster of a quarter with three distinct phases. While it may seem calmer now, but that may prove to be deceptive
BUSINESS
2008 vs 2023: On course for a crash or a controlled bubble bursting?
Regulators and governments have staved off a wider contagion. However, systemic fragility is very much evident
BUSINESS
What lies ahead after two weeks of banking stress
The Fed is likely to deliver a significant policy messaging pivot, aimed at calming market worries. The Fed hiking cycle is also likely to end sooner than previously expected and at a lower terminal rate
BUSINESS
The Day After: Of bank runs, failures and bailouts
The US banking system is dealing with the fallout of what happens when the central bank creates a more than decade-long easy money bubble and then tries to prick it in a short time
BUSINESS
All you need to know about Warren Buffett’s latest annual letter to shareholders
Warren Buffett’s annual letter never disappoints investors. This year, the big message is to focus on the winners
