BJP@3: Seven years more? Here are seven ways for the BJP to stay ahead

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi (C) holds a mace presented by Lucknow's mayor Dinesh Sharma (2nd L) as Home Minister Rajnath Singh (R) looks on during Vijaya Dashmi or Dussehra festival celebrations in Lucknow, India, October 11, 2016. REUTERS/Pawan Kumar - RTSRTHY

In its three years in power, the BJP has won both worshippers and enemies with its take-no-prisoners approach. Political foes have been subdued or rendered irrelevant, dissent isn’t particularly audible, and the party and its affiliates continue to be prescriptive in their attitude.

The win in Uttar Pradesh appears to have all but sealed a general election victory in 2019; if that result comes to pass, it gives the BJP seven years more in power. Here are seven ways for it to stay ahead:

1    Sell the economy, and security: The party has shown admirable restraint in not going down the populist route, except a measure here and there. There are real successes to show on the economic front as detailed above. Security is a mildly Goebbelsian theme where fear and hope can be adroitly mixed. Do people feel safer under a BJP government? The majority – and the choice of the word is important – probably do.

2    Be seen to plan for the big variables: How the BJP handles the fallout of any monsoon vagaries – it’s too early to tell about this year – and changes in global oil prices is critical. The government held its nerve through a period of dismal export performance, and now things are beginning to pick up.

3    Realise how saleable nationalism is: If not overdone, this could replace Mandir, black money, and to some extent even Congress-mukt as a leitmotif. It is a fairly durable idea that anyone can be bullied into being on the right side of. It also accentuates the idea of the “other”, always central to the Hindu right’s way of operating. Very few middle-class Indians would have a problem with large flags fluttering in campuses across the country, especially after the Srinagar NIT shenanigans; the views of a few students may excite intellectuals for a few days but count for little in the overall scheme of things. Nationalism, however, obnoxiously framed, is acceptable to many more people than madcap notions of intrinsic Hindu superiority or evolved ideas like internationalism. The jury’s still out on beef, but chances are that it’s a trump card that the more cynical election planners will pull out from time to time. At most times, if you like, nationalism is the new beef, and a popular cut.

4    Keep a couple of big, dramatic ideas in the bag: Case in point, demonetisation. When things are flagging or newsflow feels stale, pull out something that galvanizes people, because there is nothing people like more than getting into mission mode. Modi is adept at understanding the public pulse and more than capable of the dramatic gesture, so watch this space. (Don’t ask what: by definition, these ideas are difficult for outsiders to spot. If they weren’t, they would be less effective.)

5. ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’ still has some legs: As long as the Grand Old Party doesn’t undergo a massive revamp and isn’t energised by real leadership, it will remain an easy target for pot shots; the familiar refrain about what it did not do in 60 years in power will be heard often and contrasted with the flurry of activity under the NDA government. This is the political equivalent of scoring into an open goal, gratifying even if there’s no real challenge.

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6. Relax. Bad news, in modest doses, is harmless: As long as the news doesn’t have a direct impact on voters, the BJP can sit tight and wait for it to blow over. The news cycle moves on relentlessly – does anyone remember the second-year travails of Vasundhara Raje and Sushma Swaraj? Unless the Opposition shows preternatural determination keeping the focus on issues – and there’s no indication it will, or that enough people are listening -- you can get away with the odd bad hair day. This is different from UPA2, which tended to get skewered for days on end by TV channels.

7. Realise that a lack of grace catches up with you: The BJP showed boorishness in its dealings with the Opposition after it came to power, and its leadership displayed the same tactics internally. It paid for the first with the difficulty it faced getting even the most non-controversial legislation through; internal strife has yet to rear its head, but when the knives come out, they will be sharper for the wait. Its attitude on imposing Hindi in the south, and food habits on the whole country, are worrying developments. It can still remedy things with a more statesmanly approach, but no one, as they say, is holding their breath.