Modi's Ghazipur speech showcases electoral value of cash ban

Sitaraman Shankar

There may be chaos on the streets and anger at ATMs but hearing Prime Minister Narendra Modi speak at a political rally in Ghazipur in Uttar Pradesh brought home the power of the demonetization move and its potential to win elections for the BJP.

At least some of the messy consequences of the week-old snuffing out of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes had clearly not been anticipated, and to that extent the government ran the risk of running afoul of public opinion.

That result could have been brought about by a more skillful opposition dealing with a less adroit politician than Modi. Needless to say, barring some black swan, there is only one way that this debate is going to end: increased adulation for a popular PM and its spinoff benefits at the hustings in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, and possibly the whole country in 2019.

Politically it is almost immaterial whether the move actually leads to a huge reduction in black money or lower interest rates or a big boost to growth, even if it may do all these. A strong PM has been seen to act, an election pledge has been seen to be redeemed. Even legitimate protests against the move can easily be painted as rantings of corrupt politicians.

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Sitaraman Shankar

Managing Editor|TV18 Broadcast

Ghazipur is just a taste of things to come. Sample this.

“Tell the country: Should this corruption end? Should those who loot Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 have their wealth turned to mere paper? Will you put up with hardships for that?” Modi thundered, adding that when even villagers were ready to bear hardships for the honesty of the country, there were no alternatives open for the corrupt.

Message: This is actually your movement; a movement by the poor to punish the corrupt rich. It is a brainwave hatched in a nationalist brain, or better still inside a 56-inch chest (and here ridicule at the pigeon-chested Congress, whose demonetization gumption, Modi noted, stretched to just the 25-paise coin). It is a fight for honesty, a fight against terror and a fight against the corrupt politician the country loves to hate.

On that last point, it doesn’t hurt to conjure up a loathsome visual image either: Modi duly made a reference to the garlands of currency notes that used to adorn the necks of politicians, “garlands so big that even their heads were not visible”.

SP supremo Mulayam Singh’s drawing of a parallel with the Emergency was also seized on, but the sting was reserved for the party that imposed it, the Congress: Modi proceeded to list the excesses of 1975, refreshing people’s memory of that painful episode.

Then there was the old tea-boy chestnut, modified for demonetization: “When I was young, the poor used to ask me for strong tea…I’m used to that from childhood, and I took a strong measure. The poor like strong tea, the rich cannot palate it.” Message: I am one of you, standing shoulder-to-shoulder with you in the battle against entitlement.

Most gallingly for the Congress, Modi used his speech made on Jawaharlal Nehru’s birthday to “pay tribute” to Nehru, with a painful twist. This was done by styling the fight against poverty in Purvanchal as something that Nehru, the father and grandfather of Congress PMs, had wanted to do, but his successors did not complete, a battle that Modi was now ready to take up.

It’s handy for the BJP that in the two states going to the polls next, corruption is a big election issue. The Akali Dal government in Punjab is hideously unpopular, to the extent that the BJP has been tainted by association. Uttar Pradesh, India’s most important state electorally, continues to be an area of darkness, and any move against graft should be a vote-winner.

Demonetisation was a tough and bold move, with consequences both positive and difficult. It would be naïve to expect the BJP not to milk it for what it’s worth, given Modi’s formidable political skills. One positive of using it as an electoral card is that is likely to appeal to the poor across castes and religions, removing the need to polarize along religious lines.