Agri Picks Report November 21, 2023: Geojit

commodities

The Cotton Association of India has reduced its estimate of cotton output in 2023-24 (Oct-Sep) by 100,000 bales to 29.4 mln bales, the lowest in 15 years. It had pegged the estimate at 29.5 mln bales a month ago. One cotton bale equals 170 kg. The latest estimate is nearly 8% down from 31.9 mln bales produced in 2022-23, according to the association. The association updates its estimates on a regular basis, almost every month. The cut in the latest estimate is mainly due to a likely fall in Haryana "in view of the reports of damage to the crop on account of pink bollworm infestation and uprooting of cotton plants by farmers," according to a release by the association on Saturday. Earlier this month, Atul S. Ganatra, president of the association, had told Informist that production in India for 2023-24 is seen lower, owing to a drop in acreage and El Nino-induced dry spells in Aug-Sep. Production of cotton in the north zone, which comprises Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan, is estimated steady at 4.2 mln bales, down 100,000 bales from last year. The estimate for the central zone, which comprises Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh, is seen down at 17.9 mln bales from 19.5 mln bales last year. The estimate for the south zone is also seen lower at 6.7 mln bales from 7.5 mln bales last year. Other states account for the rest of the output. The total supply of cotton for the 2023-24 season is estimated at 34.5 mln bales, down from 35.5 mln bales a year ago. The association has estimated imports in 2023-24 at 2.2 mln bales, higher than 1.25 mln bales in 2022-23. The estimated cotton supply for 2023-24 consists of the opening stock of 2.9 mln bales at the beginning of the season, cotton output for the season estimated at 29.4 mln bales, and imports for the season estimated at 2.2 mln bales, the release said, quoting Atul S. Ganatra, president of the association. Cotton imports estimated by the association for the season are up 950,000 bales from last year. Domestic consumption of cotton in 2023-24 is estimated at 31.1 mln bales, same as last year, Ganatra said. Taking into account opening stocks, output, imports and domestic consumption, balance surplus for the season is estimated at 3.40 mln bales, a hefty decline of 23% from 4.44 mln bales a year ago. The association has estimated India’s export of cotton in 2023-24 at 1.4 mln bales, down from 1.5 mln bales in 2022-23. The ending stock for the 2023-24 season has now been estimated at 2.00 mln bales from 2.89 mln bales, the release said.

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Agri Picks 21 Nov 23