Trump thanks Iran after attack choreographed to de-escalate

US President Donald Trump

The Qataris knew the missile barrage was coming. So did the Americans. The Iranians had told them.

The US air base near Doha that was the ostensible target had been evacuated in advance. The missiles were intercepted in the air, and no one was killed or hurt. And so ended an attack on Monday that Iran billed as a retaliation to American airstrikes ordered by President Donald Trump on its nuclear facilities over the weekend.

In another remarkable turn of events, Trump announced mere hours later that Iran and its chief regional enemy Israel had agreed to a “complete and total ceasefire.”

The advance notice of Monday’s fusillade showed the Iranian regime was conceding it wanted to de-escalate tensions, while saving face at home with an apparent show of force, according to geopolitical experts including Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy national intelligence officer for the Near East.

The attack seemed “choreographed and intentional,” Panikoff said.

Oil prices — which typically jump when conflict in the Middle East flares — instead plunged. They extended their collapse after Trump announced the ceasefire.

Earlier, in a social media post following the Iranian action, Trump thanked the Islamic Republic for “giving us early notice,” and encouraged the country and its chief regional enemy Israel to pursue “Peace and Harmony.”

That was a shift from before, when Trump threatened to respond to any retaliation with “far greater” force than the US strikes on the nuclear sites.

One official with knowledge of Western intelligence assessments said Iran’s action on Monday was a typical example of an ‘off-ramp’ escalation. But the official warned it was more difficult to understand whether — and at what point — Israel would stop its own military activities in the region.

There was no immediate response from Israel to Trump’s posts late Monday.

Before tensions flared this month, American and Iranian negotiators had held several rounds of talks aimed at a new agreement on curtailing Iran’s nuclear program — to replace a 2015 deal that Trump abandoned during his first term.

Since then, Trump had alternated between military threats and hints of renewed diplomacy. His envoy in the earlier negotiations, Steve Witkoff, has been in contact with Iran since the US strikes, CNN reported Monday. Tehran has said it won’t rejoin talks while under attack.

Iran’s move on Monday, which involved short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, targeted the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which officials said had been largely evacuated.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said the number of missiles fired matched the number of bombs dropped by the US on the Islamic Republic days before and the strike “poses no danger” to Qatar, which it called “our friendly and brotherly country.”

Iran’s retaliation looks “largely symbolic,” said Ziad Daoud, Bloomberg Economics’ chief emerging-markets economist. “Plenty of warning was given — Qatar shut its airspace and the US issued warnings to citizens.”

The Iranian strategy bore the hallmarks of the two strikes it launched against Israel last year — Tehran’s first-ever direct attacks on its long-time enemy. Those were meant to look overwhelming but caused little damage.

And in 2020, after Trump ordered a drone strike killing a top Iranian general during his first term, Iran responded with a missile barrage on a US-managed airbase in northern Iraq that resulted in no fatalities.

Trump visited Al Udeid last month as part of a larger tour of the region, giving a campaign-style speech to troops there. Many staff and a large number of military aircraft were later evacuated in anticipation of a possible Iranian strike.

One unknown is how the strike will factor into the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, which touched off with Israeli strikes across the country more than a week ago.

Israel hit targets including airports and an internal-security headquarters run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Monday, and targeted a fresh assault on Iran’s Fordow nuclear site. Iran responded with missile attacks of its own.

In the aftermath of the US strikes against Iranian nuclear sites, US officials had sought to portray Trump’s attack as devastating but limited. They said the US wouldn’t put boots on the ground and the strikes were aimed at Iran’s nuclear program, not the country more broadly.

“Iran was very careful, measured in their response,” former Central Command Commander Frank McKenzie said in an interview. “They tried to do as little as they could do and get away with a sense of honor.”