Push for RIC revival: Why Moscow thinks the time is right to revive the Russia-India-China troika

Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi attend a concert before an informal dinner on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia October 22, 2024.

For the first time in nearly five years, Russia is pushing to revive the long-dormant Russia-India-China (RIC) trilateral format – a strategic dialogue once envisioned as a counterbalance to Western power.

Speaking at a security conference in Perm on May 29, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov declared that “the time has come” to bring back the RIC mechanism, citing signs of de-escalation in India-China border tensions.

“I would like to confirm our genuine interest in the earliest resumption of the work within the format of the troika — Russia, India, China — which was established many years ago on the initiative of (ex-Russian prime minister) Yevgeny Primakov, and which has organised meetings more than 20 times at the ministerial level since then, not only at the level of foreign policy chiefs, but also the heads of other economic, trade and financial agencies of the three countries," Lavrov was quoted as saying by TASS.

The move is more than symbolic – it signals Moscow’s intent to reposition itself at the heart of Eurasian diplomacy amid growing geopolitical fragmentation, deepening ties with China, and India's strategic hedging between the West and East. But why now, and what does Russia hope to gain?

What is the RIC format?

The RIC format was initiated in the late 1990s by former Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov as a strategic counterbalance to Western dominance. Over the years, it facilitated over 20 ministerial-level meetings, fostering cooperation in foreign policy, economics, and security among the three nations. However, the format lost momentum following the 2020 Galwan Valley incident, which severely strained India-China relations.

Why is Russia pushing for its revival?

Easing India-China tensions: Lavrov highlighted that India and China have reached an understanding to ease border tensions, particularly after the meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping during the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, in October 2024. This development provides a favourable environment for reactivating the RIC dialogue.

Countering Western influence: Russia perceives the growing influence of Western alliances, such as NATO and the Quad (comprising the US, Japan, Australia, and India), as a threat to regional stability. Lavrov accused NATO of attempting to draw India into "anti-China intrigues," suggesting that the RIC could serve as a platform to resist such external pressures.

Strengthening Eurasian Security Architecture: By reviving the RIC, Russia aims to promote a "single and equitable system of security and cooperation in Eurasia." This aligns with Moscow's broader strategy to establish a multipolar world order and reduce reliance on Western-centric institutions.

Challenges to the RIC revival

Lingering India-China border disputes: Despite recent diplomatic engagements, unresolved border issues between India and China remain a significant hurdle. The trust deficit could impede the effectiveness of the RIC format.

India’s strategic alignments: India's participation in the Quad and its deepening ties with Western nations reflect its strategic balancing act. Aligning closely with both the RIC and Western alliances may pose diplomatic challenges for New Delhi.

Russia-China dynamics: Russia's growing closeness with China, especially in the wake of the Ukraine conflict, might raise concerns in India about the impartiality of the RIC platform.

Russia's call to revive the RIC format reflects its strategic intent to bolster regional cooperation and counterbalance Western influence. While recent improvements in India-China relations provide a window of opportunity, several challenges need to be addressed to ensure the RIC's effectiveness. The success of this trilateral initiative will depend on the political will of all three nations to navigate complex geopolitical dynamics and prioritize mutual interests.