Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit China on August 31 for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Tianjin, marking his first trip to the country since the 2020 Galwan Valley clash that plunged India-China ties into deep freeze. The visit signals a potential thaw, however cautious, in a relationship defined by mistrust and military standoffs.
The proposed visit follows External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh visiting China recently, which have been viewed as the strongest indication yet of a slow but deliberate reset in the turbulent India-China relationship.
Behind this diplomatic recalibration lies a new geopolitical push: growing economic pressure from the United States, particularly under Donald Trump’s escalating tariff threats. Ironically, it may be Trump’s aggressively transactional view of trade, particularly targeting India’s imports from Russia, that is nudging New Delhi and Beijing into pragmatic engagement.
By threatening a "substantial" tariff on India over its purchase of Russian oil, after already slapping a 25% levy, Trump may have done more than simply aggravate a long-time ally. He may have pushed India into finding common ground with its historic rival: China.
Trump’s tariff barrage: From Russia to India
Earlier this year, Trump imposed sweeping tariffs under Section 301 and has now initiated a Section 232 investigation into pharmaceutical imports, threatening up to 250 per cent tariffs on drugs -- a move that directly targets India, which supplies nearly one-third of America’s generic drugs.
Trump has been repeatedly lambasting India’s imports of discounted Russian crude, accusing New Delhi of “profiting off blood oil” and suggesting “very substantial” duties on Indian goods unless it aligns more closely with Washington’s geopolitical agenda. This “with-us-or-against-us” stance has placed India in a strategic bind -- one where it faces the threat of economic retaliation for pursuing its own energy security and diplomatic autonomy.
Meanwhile, the ties between the US and China remain volatile. In early 2025, Trump slapped a series of steep tariffs, including fentanyl‑related duties and sweeping “reciprocal” charges, pushing US tariffs on Chinese goods to as high as 145% while China's retaliatory duties reached 125%.
Despite a temporary truce agreed in Stockholm -- cutting tariffs back to roughly 30% for now -- the deal hinges on an August 12 deadline with Trump holding final say. Meanwhile, US investment in China has plunged -- only 48% of US companies plan to invest this year, down from 80% in 2024 -- highlighting how uncertainty and policy unpredictability are chilling business sentiment.
Speaking the same language
What followed Trump’s tirade was a rare sight: India and China appeared aligned in their response.
India’s Ministry of External Affairs issued a firm statement, calling the US actions “unjustified and unreasonable.” It highlighted Washington and the EU’s own continued trade with Russia, including US purchases of uranium, palladium, and fertilizers, and rejected any double standards.
Across the border, China’s foreign ministry struck a similar note, vowing to pursue energy security “in ways that serve our national interests” and warning Washington that “coercion will not work.” China’s deputy envoy to the UN Geng Shuang also lashed out at the US for its hypocrisy in buying Russian goods while punishing others for the same.
Chinese state media praised India for continuing to buy Russian oil, with Global Times calling it an example of India’s “independent foreign policy.” Qian Feng of Tsinghua University said India relies on affordable, high-quality Russian oil to meet its energy needs and support economic growth, despite US pressure.
China and India: From collision to coexistence?
India and China remain deeply estranged over their Himalayan border dispute. The Galwan clash, which killed 20 Indian soldiers and an undisclosed number of Chinese troops, triggered widespread anti-China sentiment in India. But in the realpolitik world of trade and strategy, even bitter rivals may find common ground when external pressures mount.
With Trump amplifying his threats against India, particularly on trade and defence ties with Russia, Beijing senses an opportunity to soften India’s hardline stance. For India, the calculus is more complicated. While it continues to hedge against China with military and Quad cooperation with the US, Japan, and Australia, it is also wary of becoming collateral damage in Trump’s erratic tariff wars.
The SCO Summit offers a rare platform for quiet diplomacy. While no bilateral meeting with Xi Jinping is confirmed, the possibility of informal talks between Modi, Xi, and Putin cannot be ruled out, especially given Trump’s threat of secondary sanctions on any country aiding Russia.
Why this should concern the US
India has been central to the US Indo-Pacific strategy, especially as a counterweight to China. Trump’s escalating trade war rhetoric threatens to unravel two decades of bipartisan efforts to strengthen this partnership.
Antagonising India not only risks pushing it away; it opens the door for China to make inroads, even if temporarily. A closer India-China equation, even if not a full-fledged alliance, could weaken Washington’s influence in Asia and create a diplomatic vacuum for others, including Moscow and Beijing, to exploit.
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