Xi Jinping’s disappearance signals power shift in China: Why India must watch Beijing’s political flux closely

Chinese President Xi Jinping - File Photo

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s two-week absence from public view between May 21 and June 5 has reignited questions about internal power shifts within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). While state media has offered no explanation, top intelligence sources tell CNN-News18 that this silence is symptomatic of a deeper political churn within China’s opaque leadership. For India, these shifts are not just of geopolitical interest. Rather, they carry direct national security implications.

According to top intelligence inputs, as quoted by CNN-News18, Xi’s disappearance is not an isolated event but part of a broader trend in which the CCP sidelines its own leaders to weaken their operational influence without formal removal. Historical precedents include downgrading once-prominent figures to ceremonial roles while transferring actual control to more pliable functionaries.

At present, real authority in Beijing may have shifted to General Zhang Youxia, First Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission. Zhang is reportedly backed by senior CCP leaders aligned with the Hu Jintao faction - an older guard seen as more technocratic and less ideologically rigid than Xi.

While Xi continues to hold all formal titles - General Secretary of the CCP, President of the PRC, and Chairman of the Central Military Commission - intelligence sources indicate that his influence is waning across key pillars: military, ideological, and economic. The removal of generals loyal to him, the quiet burial of “Xi Jinping Thought” from recent state narratives, and the visible return of sidelined reformists such as Wang Yang all point to a gradual shift in power.

Escalation on the LAC feared

India has reason to be concerned. History shows that China externalises internal instability, often by provoking confrontations along sensitive borders.

During the 2012 Bo Xilai political crisis, the PLA intensified activities in the South China Sea. In 2020, during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic - a time of domestic chaos and military reshuffles - China engaged in violent border skirmishes in Eastern Ladakh, leading to the Galwan Valley clash.

Now, the Western Theatre Command, which is responsible for China’s operations along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with India, has undergone multiple high-level reshuffles since late 2024. This churn could translate into tactical escalations in Arunachal Pradesh or Ladakh, as new commanders seek to signal loyalty to emerging power centres in Beijing.

Indian intelligence officials expect China to increase cyber warfare and disinformation efforts, much like in 2020. Likely actions include cyberattacks on Indian financial systems, power grids, and government networks, as well as the use of fake news, deepfakes, and AI-generated propaganda to create internal unrest.

China may also step up its anti-India messaging at global platforms like the UN to undermine New Delhi’s international standing. Additionally, Beijing is expected to obstruct India’s diplomatic efforts, particularly on issues like BRICS expansion and counterterrorism. An aggressive naval posture in the Indian Ocean could further serve as a show of strength during a period of internal instability.

Xi Jinping’s reduced visibility may reflect a power struggle at the top, but it is China’s traditional reaction to such instability that should concern New Delhi the most. With economic distress, increasing youth unemployment, and failed high-tech funding programmes adding pressure, the CCP could once again reach for external confrontation as a pressure valve.