Gaza ceasefire: What’s paused, what’s promised, and what still isn’t settled

Ceasefire calm masks deeper tensions

Strikes and shelling have stopped across Gaza for the first time in months, and Hamas’s fighters aren’t engaging Israeli forces. That’s a real halt in fighting. But Israel still holds positions in roughly half the strip and says a full pullback depends on next steps—chiefly Hamas’s disarmament. Washington calls it the end of the war; Jerusalem is calling it a pause tied to conditions. Both can be true until the next breach, CNN reported.

What’s phase two supposed to decide?

Technical teams are already talking through the second phase of the deal. On the table: how Gaza is run day-to-day, who polices it, and how aid and reconstruction scale up without re-arming militants. The US plan sketches a Palestinian technocratic administration with oversight from a new international board. That board—who sits on it, what powers it has, and how long it lasts—will determine whether this is a bridge to local control or an open-ended trusteeship in all but name.

Will Hamas hand over guns if it gives up the keys?

Hamas says it can step back from governing. It has not pledged to disarm. Since the truce began, armed cadres have reappeared in some areas, policing rivals and signalling they are still a force. The US framework demands Gaza’s “demilitarization,” destruction of tunnels and workshops, and a neutral civilian police. That creates a fork: either Hamas yields weapons or an external force confronts them—politically, economically, or, if talks collapse, by force.

Who actually keeps order tomorrow morning?

An International Stabilization Force is meant to deploy once the Israeli military withdraws further. Egypt is central but wants a UN mandate to avoid being seen as an occupying power. Others will want clear rules of engagement, funding, and a timeline. Without that, aid convoys, bakeries, clinics and rubble-clearing can stall—fuelling black markets and armed groups that thrive in the gaps.

When do Israeli troops leave—and on what terms?

Israel has signed up to no annexation or occupation, but ties withdrawal to verifiable demilitarization. That satisfies security hawks but risks an open-ended “conditions first” stance if benchmarks are vague. Inside Israel’s coalition, far-right partners oppose a clean exit and talk up resettlement—pressure that narrows the prime minister’s room to manoeuvre even as international partners push for a timetable.

Is there any path to Palestinian statehood in this plan?

More countries now recognize a Palestinian state, and the ceasefire text nods to “aspirations,” not recognition. Washington has kept the question deliberately open while focusing on stabilizing Gaza. That buys time—but also prolongs the core dispute. Without a credible political horizon tied to reform of Palestinian institutions, today’s truce can harden into a frozen conflict.

Aid is surging—can it last?

The agreement opens the taps: hundreds of trucks daily, fuel and cooking gas, bakeries restarting. That eases hunger and cools tempers fast. The test comes after the first wave—can crossings stay open, can payments reach local suppliers, can repairs beat theft and graft? Success depends on security for logistics and a single authority that aid agencies can deal with.

What could still derail the deal?

Three risks loom. First, a security shock—a rocket, a deadly clash, or a cross-border incident—can snap the truce. Second, governance drift—if the interim setup feels imposed or corrupt, public support evaporates. Third, verification—if parties can’t agree on who certifies tunnel closures or weapons disposal, every checkpoint becomes a veto point.

The bottom line

The guns are quiet and families are reunited. That’s not nothing—it’s the opening to do the hard work. The ceasefire will hold only if demilitarization has real milestones, Gaza’s day-to-day is run by credible Palestinians with international backup, and Israel’s exit is tied to clear, verifiable steps—not wishful thinking. Absent that, today’s calm risks becoming just another intermission.