Foreign policy looms over Australian election as Chinese-Australian voters hold sway

Australia’s election focuses on balancing US-China relations and Chinese-Australian voters.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese spent Easter Monday at the Golden Lily restaurant in Box Hill, a Melbourne suburb where nearly 30 per cent of residents were born in China.

Photos posted on Facebook showed him dining with Foreign Minister Penny Wong, their table covered in Chinese dishes—a pointed gesture to a key demographic ahead of the 3 May federal election.

As reported by the Financial Times, while the campaign has been dominated by domestic cost-of-living concerns, foreign policy is emerging as a decisive factor. Australia is attempting to balance its close alliance with the United States, its primary security partner, with its deep trade ties to China, particularly as Donald Trump’s protectionist stance adds to global uncertainty.

“The key part of the debate is how Australia charts a path with our key security allies at a time when Australians see an ongoing threat from China,” Ryan Neelam, from Sydney’s Lowy Institute, told the Financial Times.

Albanese and his opponent, Liberal Party leader Peter Dutton, are actively courting Chinese-Australian voters, who are heavily concentrated in marginal seats around Sydney and Melbourne. In 2022, a strong swing from this community helped Labor defeat the then Liberal-led coalition, which had adopted a hardline stance towards Beijing.

“The coalition tried to put national security as the major issue,” Osmond Chiu of the Per Capita think-tank told the Financial Times. “But in 2025, it is more about the US. It’s a different dynamic.”

Dutton, a former defence minister who once warned Australians to “prepare for war”, has softened his rhetoric and recently described himself as “pro-China”. During a campaign stop in Box Hill, he pledged A$250,000 to support future Lunar New Year celebrations—an apparent effort to win back Chinese-Australian trust.

Trump’s hostility towards allies including Canada, Ukraine and even Greenland—as well as his continued imposition of 145 per cent tariffs on Chinese goods—has unsettled many Australians. A Financial Times-cited Lowy poll found 41 per cent of voters trust Albanese more than Dutton (29 per cent) on foreign policy. Public confidence in the US acting responsibly has also hit a 20-year low.

Albanese’s tenure has seen a stabilisation of relations with Beijing, including the lifting of tariffs on key exports such as coal, wine and lobsters. But tensions remain, with recent Chinese naval drills near Australia and renewed debate over Chinese ownership of the Port of Darwin.

“Chinese-Australian voters will be pivotal,” Chiu said. “They could determine whether it’s going to be a majority or minority government.”