Apple's iPhone growth in India to slow in 2025, but maintain leadership in premium segment

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Apple’s iPhone shipment growth in India is expected to slow to around 16% in 2025, reaching an estimated 13-14 million units, compared to 34-35% growth in 2024, analysts said. Despite the slowdown, they noted that a double-digit growth rate will further strengthen Apple’s leadership in the high-value smartphone segment and solidify its position among the top five brands by volume.

According to IDC estimates, Apple shipped just over 12 million iPhones in 2024, marking a substantial 34-35% increase from 9 million in 2023. A Counterpoint report also highlighted that Apple led the Indian smartphone market in revenue share for the second consecutive year and, for the first time, ranked among the top five brands by volume in Q4 2024.

Apple achieved a remarkable 9–10% market share during the festive October–December 2024 period—a historic feat since the brand first began selling iPhones in India, according to  IDC and Counterpoint Research.

“Apple’s performance in India is a testament to the country’s increasing importance in the global smartphone market,” Upasana Joshi, Research Director at IDC, told Moneycontrol.

"Apple shipped 9 million units in 2023 and over 12 million in 2024, showing strong momentum. India accounted for approximately 5-6% of Apple's global shipments in 2024, trailing only the U.S., China, and Japan. This growth was driven by affordability schemes, strong demand for previous-generation devices, and increased reliance on online sales channels. Meanwhile, Android brands like Samsung and OnePlus saw a decline in their share of the premium ($600+) segment," she said.

Looking ahead, Joshi estimated that Apple will continue to outpace the overall smartphone market in 2025, with shipments reaching 13-14 million units.

Counterpoint Research expects Apple to maintain a 10-15% year-on-year growth rate in 2025.

"Apple and Samsung will be key drivers of India's smartphone market value growth in 2025," said Karn Chauhan, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint Research. "Apple is well-positioned in the premium and ultra-premium segments, benefiting from its aspirational brand image, growing presence in smaller cities, and expanding local manufacturing."

A Kantar survey found that the iPhone was a top-selling model in Q4 2024 across several key markets, including the U.S., urban China, India, the UK, France, Australia, and Japan.

With continued expansion, local manufacturing, and rising consumer demand, Apple remains on track for sustained growth in India’s high-end smartphone market, analysts added.

CEO Tim Cook reiterated the company’s strong focus on India during an investor call following Apple's quarterly earnings report.

"We set a December-quarter record in India, and we're doubling down on expansion," Cook said. "We're opening four new Apple Stores there."

He also highlighted the iPhone’s success in the Indian market: "The iPhone was the top-selling model in India for the quarter. India is the world’s second-largest smartphone market and the third largest for PCs and tablets. While our market share remains modest, there is significant growth potential."

While Apple has a relatively small share of India’s PC market, its iPad lineup continues to dominate the tablet segment.

According to Cybermedia Research, Apple led the Indian tablet market in 2024 with a 34% market share, driven primarily by strong sales of the iPad 10 Series, which accounted for 60% of Apple's tablet shipments.

Apple has also seen rising demand from Indian enterprises, with Chief Financial Officer Kevan Parekh citing the adoption of Macs at Zomato as an example.

"Zomato has deployed thousands of Macs across its workforce to foster innovation," Parekh said, reflecting growing interest from businesses in Apple’s ecosystem.