The International Space Station is dying and could break apart in orbit, NASA warns

An artist’s concept of the International Space Station orbiting Earth. In the distance is the Moon, and a red star representing Mars. (Image Credit: NASA)

There was a time when the International Space Station felt invincible. Now, it feels more like an ageing ship creaking in orbit, held together by experience and optimism. And according to NASA’s safety experts, the time for optimism may be running out.

During a recent public meeting on 17 April, NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel said it was “deeply concerned” about the space station’s current condition. The panel highlighted long-standing issues like cracks, air leaks and reduced funding.

NASA has long flagged the cost of maintaining ISS hardware. But now, concerns have sharpened as the station approaches its planned retirement in 2030.

Safety concerns grow with ageing equipment

NASA officials say the ISS has entered its most dangerous phase. Cracks have persisted for years, with air leaks occasionally disrupting station operations. In one case, the leak’s source was found using floating tea leaves.

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Currently, NASA intends to deorbit the ISS safely by 2030. The agency has chosen SpaceX to build the US Deorbit Vehicle for that task. But recent developments may disrupt this plan.

SpaceX chief Elon Musk recently urged NASA to bring the station down sooner. He said the ISS had “served its purpose”, following a public argument with a former commander.

Musk has refused to comment on proposed NASA budget cuts. He said a conflict of interest prevents him from weighing in.

The safety panel’s latest warnings may support Musk’s view. Rich Williams, a panel member, said, “The ISS has entered the riskiest period of its existence.”

Leaks persist and risks increase

The panel focused on a leak in the Zvezda module’s vestibule, known as PrK. NASA and Roscosmos have been investigating it for years without finding the exact source.

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Williams said the PrK leak remains a top safety concern. NASA and Russian space officials are expected to meet in Moscow soon to discuss the problem further.

Until then, ISS managers have taken precautionary steps. They have limited how often they repressurise the PrK vestibule, which connects a docking port to the station.

The panel also raised the threat of an unplanned deorbit before SpaceX’s vehicle is ready. Such a descent could be deadly if debris reaches populated areas.

“If there is a deorbit of the ISS before the USDV is delivered,” Williams warned, “the risk to the public from ISS breakup debris will increase by orders of magnitude.”

Funding fears and the road to retirement

The panel said that financial shortfalls now pose a bigger risk than any technical issue. They stressed that the entire ISS retirement plan depends on having enough funding.

Williams said, “All of these risks are actually a derivative of this budget shortfall and collectively contribute to potential compromise of the low Earth orbit transition plan.”

NASA spent $993 million last year on ISS upkeep. A further $1.63 billion covered cargo and crew transport. The new USDV and its launch infrastructure may cost over $1 billion more.

The panel warned that using only the existing ISS budget for the new vehicle could weaken NASA’s ability to run current operations safely.

Williams explained, “For the ISS, it is critical to maintain an adequate budget and resources until the vehicle is safely re-entered.”

The panel said it respected NASA’s proven ability to operate the station. Still, they remain “deeply concerned” about growing risks as the ISS nears the end of its life in orbit.