Newly discovered asteroid with 100x Hiroshima bomb power may hit Earth in 2032—What are the odds of its collision?

Asteroid coming towards Earth (Representative Image - Canva)

Asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit Earth on 2 December 2032. This space rock, as large as the Statue of Liberty, holds significant destructive potential. Scientists are closely tracking its path as the chances of impact rise.

Astronomers discovered 2024 YR4 in December 2023 using NASA-funded telescopes. Initially, the impact chance was 1.2%, but recent calculations raised it to 2.3%. This means a one in 43 chance of collision, making it a serious concern.

NASA and the European Space Agency track thousands of asteroids. However, 2024 YR4 is the only one with over 1% impact probability. It currently ranks 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. The last asteroid to receive a higher rating was later deemed non-threatening.

- NASA and the ESA have increased the probability of Earth impact by asteroid 2024 YR4 to 2.3% in 2032. This asteroid, ranging between 40 to 90 meters (131 to 295 feet) in diameter, is classified at level 3 on the Torino Scale, which assesses the threat level of near-Earth pic.twitter.com/LsgvctWGPR
The Informant (@theinformant_x) February 7, 2025

Potential Impact and Destruction
If 2024 YR4 strikes, the explosion could reach 15 megatons of TNT. This force is 100 times greater than the Hiroshima bomb. The impact zone could experience devastation within a 5.7 km radius. Severe damage may extend up to 8.8 km, with fatalities as far as 19 km.
A direct hit on London could flatten areas from Westminster to Croydon. A strike on Manchester, Belfast, or Edinburgh could cause massive destruction. Even smaller cities would suffer catastrophic damage over several miles.

While still an extremely low possibility, asteroid 2024 YR4's impact probability with Earth has increased from about 1% to a 2.3% chance on Dec. 22, 2032. As we observe the asteroid more, the impact probability will become better known. More: https://t.co/VWiASTMBDi pic.twitter.com/Z1mpb4UPaC NASA Asteroid Watch (@AsteroidWatch) February 7, 2025

Are We Prepared?
Despite rising impact probability, experts stress the risk remains low. Earth’s surface is mostly water, making an ocean impact more likely. Many previous asteroid threats have been ruled out with refined calculations.

Currently, NASA lacks technology to deflect such a large asteroid. The DART mission recently tested asteroid redirection, but methods are still developing. If 2024 YR4 stays on course, early detection and emergency planning are crucial.

Scientists will continue tracking the asteroid, hoping its threat diminishes. The next calculations will determine whether Earth remains at risk. Until then, planetary defence efforts remain a priority.