On Friday, 13, 2029, Earth will witness a notable celestial event as the asteroid Apophis approaches within 19,000 miles (30,600 kilometres) of our planet. Named after the Egyptian serpent god of chaos, this asteroid could be visible to the naked eye during its close pass.

New Research Highlights Potential Risks

Recent research suggests that if smaller space rocks collide with Apophis, it could alter the asteroid's trajectory. This potential change could increase the risk of a future collision with Earth. However, the chances of such an event remain extremely low. Paul Wiegert, an astronomer at the University of Western Ontario, estimates the probability of Apophis being deflected into a dangerous path is about 1 in a billion.

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Apophis was first discovered in 2004 and quickly became a focal point for impact risk assessments due to its size and trajectory. Despite initial concerns, a close flyby in March 2021 allowed NASA to confirm that Apophis poses no threat for at least the next century.

Potential for Deflection

Wiegert's latest study examines how collisions with smaller asteroids might impact Apophis. He found that a 60-centimetre (24-inch) asteroid could, in theory, deflect Apophis onto a potentially hazardous path, but such collisions are rare.

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If Apophis were to be on a collision course with Earth, there are several methods under consideration to mitigate the threat. NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) in 2022 demonstrated a technique for deflecting asteroids. Although its effectiveness on Apophis is not yet confirmed, it offers a potential strategy for future use.

Exploring Possible Methods

Other deflection methods include impacting the asteroid with nuclear weapons or painting its surface to change its trajectory. While these methods are scientifically plausible, they have yet to be tested on a large scale.

Despite the low risk of Apophis impacting Earth in 2029, the asteroid’s approach presents significant scientific opportunities. It offers a chance to advance our understanding of asteroid impact prevention and preparedness. The astronomical community is actively exploring ways to manage potential threats.

Paul Wiegert’s study on Apophis is published in The Planetary Science Journal.

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