Asteroid 2024 YR4 could strike Moon in December 2032, sending debris toward Earth’s satellites

Asteroid 2024 YR4 May Threaten the Moon

There was a time we feared it might strike Earth. Now, the asteroid 2024 YR4 may be eyeing the Moon instead. It’s not the direct danger that alarms scientists—but what may follow.

First discovered by a Chilean telescope in December 2024, the space rock caused panic. Early models warned of a possible Earth strike in 2032, sparking fears of citywide destruction. But updated readings gave some relief, ruling out an Earth collision. Now, attention has shifted upwards again—as the Moon may take the hit.

Odds of Lunar Impact Are Rising
As of 18 June, astronomers say the chance is growing. The latest observations put the odds of a Moon collision at 4.3%. These figures come just before the asteroid moved out of telescope range. It won’t be visible again until 2028.

Paul Wiegert, a Canadian astronomer at the University of Western Ontario, issued a fresh warning. He explained that if 2024 YR4 slams into the Moon, it could send a dangerous wave of debris flying through space.

Wiegert said, “The Earth’s gravity can focus that material. So even if it’s not aimed directly at us, some debris could still reach our orbit.”

One-Kilometre Crater and Satellite Threat
If a collision happens, the Moon could be scarred with a one-kilometre-wide crater. That would make it the largest such impact in 5,000 years. While not massive compared to ancient lunar craters, the blast could be strong enough to launch high-speed shrapnel toward Earth’s orbit.

Simulations have been run over 10,000 times by Wiegert’s team. These suggest the debris may not destroy satellites outright—but could still cause chaos. Malfunctions may happen through electrical surges and false readings. In a world increasingly dependent on space-based tech, such errors could be costly.

Four-Year Window for Defence
The asteroid won’t return to view until 2028. That gives scientists a four-year window to act—if the threat worsens. Wiegert believes this should push space agencies to boost asteroid deflection plans.

He notes that while Earth may seem a small target, space physics can surprise. With gravity playing a role, even distant explosions on the Moon might affect systems orbiting above us.

Though there’s no need for panic, experts agree—there’s reason to prepare. The story of 2024 YR4 may not be over yet.