Russia-Ukraine conflict: You can play broker only when two warring countries want peace

It is not very easy for a country to have equal diplomatic heft with two warring neighbours as India does with Russia and Ukraine.

Under the circumstances, it is worth considering if India has the diplomatic space, muscle and above all goodwill, to play honest broker between the two sides. Ukraine has rejected Russia’s offer of a limited truce in the festive season.

Given the volume of bad blood and water that has flowed down the Dnieper since late February 2022, when Russia launched a military invasion of Ukraine, any mediation – as understood in diplomatic terms – looks a tall order.

Nonetheless, writing in The Times of India on January 6, Ukraine’s charge d’affaires to New Delhi Ivan Konovalov placed his hopes in India’s G20 presidency this year and the position of Prime Minister Narendra Modi that “today’s era must not be of war,” believing that there is a window of opportunity for collective action by all countries that stand for freedom and democracy to restore the peace.

“Ukraine counts on India’s participation in implementation of the peace formula and we believe that this will be a powerful signal to other nations of the Global South to work together under India’s G20 presidency theme ‘One Earth, One Family, One Future’,’’ the diplomat noted in his column.

India’s role

On December 5, foreign minister S Jaishankar told the Austrian newspaper Die Press that India had tried to defuse the situation around Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

Serious global concerns had arisen over safety of the Zaporizhzhia plant in August after it came under fire, with Russia and Ukraine blaming each other for the attacks. Later, a team of experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) travelled to the site.

The Indian foreign minister also told the newspaper that New Delhi had quietly helped facilitate the export of millions of tonnes of wheat, maize and other grains from Ukraine in July following months of negotiations. The deal had been considered crucial for addressing food shortages in many countries.

Asked whether the main role of mediator between Russia and Ukraine has already been taken by Turkey, Jaishankar told the newspaper: "No. But it's not a question of who gets the credit as mediator and makes the headlines for it."

Desired credentials, credibility

Former Indian ambassador to China, Ashok Kantha, believes that India enjoys that goodwill of all sides, as well as the desired credentials and credibility in the European war.

“Yet, there can be no role of a mediator since the demands of the two countries, Russia and Ukraine, are so far apart. There is no meeting ground. Both sides believe they have time on their side and there is no hurry to reach the negotiating table,” he told Moneycontrol.

In Kantha’s reckoning, maybe at a later stage, when Russia and Ukraine believe there is need for a reconciliation, India could have a role to play.

India’s informal attempts at trying to bring about peace in war-torn Europe have been noticed, particularly by the Western press. In September last year, Modi’s `rebuke’ of Russia at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Samarkand evoked a lot of interest.

During a meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin, Modi told the Russian leader that 'today's era is not of war’ -- remarks that were seen by a section of world leaders as a public rebuke.

For his part, Putin assured PM Modi that he was aware of India's worries over the crisis in Ukraine and that Russia will use all available means to put a stop to it as soon as possible.

On his return from the SCO meeting, Modi had dialled Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky in October and offered to assist in initiating peace talks, noting that there was no military solution to the problem.

At a Hindustan Times event in November, 2022, foreign minister Jaishankar said that it would be `premature’ to speak of India acting as a mediator to make peace between Russia and Ukraine. Significantly, he did not reject the notion.

Former Indian diplomat Deepak Vohra queries: “Who wants peace in the first place?”

He told Moneycontrol: “This is not a war between Russia and Ukraine, but between Russia and the US. Ukraine is just the fall guy. No one even knows how much of their army is even left or fit to fight.”