How does Sweden's Nato membership impact security landscape of the Baltic Sea region?

Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 led to a significant change in both public sentiment and among political parties in Sweden.

Sweden's advancement toward Nato (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) membership comes amid the backdrop of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which is causing significant shifts in the geopolitical landscape. Hungary's parliament made a crucial decision on February 26 by endorsing Stockholm's application to join the military alliance. More significantly, the inclusion of Sweden and Finland into Nato ranks is among the most significant geopolitical consequences of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s actions in Ukraine.

Nordic Nations Strengthen Influence in Baltic Sea

With the addition of these two Nordic nations, Nato gains control over nearly the entire Baltic Sea, except for the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. Notably, Sweden's strategic island of Gotland holds significant importance in the region, particularly in defending the Baltic states against potential Russian threats.

Sweden, Finland's NATO Accession Reshapes Eastern Flank

Additionally, the accession of Sweden and Finland brings about fundamental changes to Nato's eastern flank, effectively doubling the alliance's border with Russia. This transformation is exemplified by Finland's extensive 1,340 km-long eastern frontier. Experts are of the view that the latest developments mark a substantial shift in European security dynamics and underscore the evolving nature of the geopolitical landscape in the wake of Russia's actions in Ukraine.

Also Read: Hungary's parliament ratified Sweden's bid to join NATO, clearing the last major obstacle to membership

What Prompted Sweden's Decision to Align with NATO?

At the end of the Napoleonic wars in the early 19th century, Sweden adopted an official policy of neutrality. Following the end of the Cold War, this neutrality policy evolved into one of military non-alignment. Despite Sweden's participation in international peacekeeping missions, it has not engaged in warfare for over two centuries, with its last conflict being the Swedish-Norwegian War of 1814.

Assertive Foreign Policy

Despite its neutral stance, Sweden has upheld an assertive foreign policy, championing human rights and emerging as a leading aid donor per capita, earning recognition as a "humanitarian superpower." Despite its non-membership in Nato, Sweden has forged progressively closer bonds with the alliance over the years.

Since 1994, Sweden has actively engaged with Nato through participation in the Partnership for Peace programme. Additionally, since 1997, it has been involved in the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council. These initiatives have facilitated collaboration between Sweden and Nato, fostering mutual understanding and cooperation in areas of shared interest.

Also Read: Turkey links Sweden's NATO bid to US approving F-16 jet sales and Canada lifting arms embargo

Pragmatic Diplomacy

Sweden's pragmatic approach to international relations allows it to maintain its neutrality while simultaneously deepening its ties with Nato, enhancing its security and contributing to regional stability.

For a significant duration, the idea of Sweden pursuing full Nato membership faced resistance, with a majority of Swedes expressing opposition to the notion. This sentiment was particularly pronounced within the Social Democrats, Sweden's largest political party, where discussions of joining Nato were considered taboo.

Former Social Democrat defence minister Peter Hultqvist, in the autumn of 2021, unequivocally stated his stance, asserting that he would "guarantee" never to engage in any process aimed at joining Nato. This firm stance reflected the prevailing sentiment within the party and underscored the longstanding reluctance toward Nato membership among a considerable portion of the Swedish populace.

Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Alters Sweden's Security Outlook

However, Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 precipitated a dramatic shift in both public opinion and among political parties in Sweden. The brazen aggression by Russia served as a wake-up call, prompting a reevaluation of Sweden's security posture.

Also See: Russia-Ukraine War | 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed since Russia’s Invasion

In response to the evolving geopolitical landscape, a broad majority of the Swedish parliament voted to apply for Nato membership. This marked a significant departure from past sentiments and reflected a growing consensus on the need for enhanced security measures in the face of external threats.

Later, in May 2022, Sweden, along with Finland, officially pursued NATO membership, signaling a profound shift in their foreign policy orientation. The decision underscored the countries' determination to bolster their defense capabilities and deepen their integration with Western security structures in the wake of Russia's aggressive actions in the region.

What Does Sweden Contribute to Nato's Collective Defence Efforts?

After Stockholm successfully addressed longstanding objections from Turkey, Hungary emerged as the final obstacle in Sweden's NATO bid. Swedish officials grew increasingly frustrated with both nations for hindering what could have been Nato's quickest accession process to date.

Turkey's Backing of Sweden's Nato Bid

Turkey's opposition primarily revolved around Sweden's historical backing of ethnic Kurds, with Ankara insisting on stronger measures against separatist factions. Turkey eventually endorsed Sweden's Nato bid last month. Subsequently, the United States agreed to sell $23 billion worth of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey just days later.

Focus Shifts from Neutrality to International Peacekeeping

For decades, Swedish policy emphasised the necessity of a robust military to safeguard its neutrality. However, following the conclusion of the Cold War, Sweden significantly reduced its defense expenditure, redirecting its military focus towards international peacekeeping missions.

Sweden Increases Military Spending

In 1990, defence spending represented 2.6 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), but by 2020, it had diminished to 1.2 percent, according to government figures. The trend shifted following Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, prompting Sweden to begin increasing defence spending once again.

In March 2022, amid Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Sweden announced intentions to further boost military expenditure, aiming to reach two percent of GDP "as soon as possible." By late 2023, the Swedish government declared that military spending would surpass the two percent threshold in 2024.

Comprising various branches, the Swedish military can deploy approximately 50,000 soldiers, half of whom are reservists. Its air force boasts over 90 domestically produced JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets, while its navy patrols the Baltic Sea with several corvettes and submarines.
In January, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson affirmed his country's readiness to contribute troops to Nato's forces in Latvia.

Following Hungary's parliamentary ratification of Sweden's Nato bid, Kristersson reaffirmed Sweden's commitment to Euro-Atlantic security.

'NATO Lake'

The inclusion of Sweden and Finland in NATO effectively surrounds the Baltic Sea with alliance members, prompting some analysts to refer to it as a "Nato lake." Robert Dalsjo, an analyst at the Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), described this development as the final piece falling into place on Nato's map in Northern Europe.

Sweden's accession to Nato brings significant implications for its defence strategy and posture:

(1.)  Shift in Military Calculations: Earlier, Sweden operated under the assumption of handling defence tasks independently. However, as a NATO member, the country's defence strategy must now align with alliance objectives, necessitating a shift towards cooperative defense efforts.

(2.) Learning to Be a Team Player: With membership in Nato, Sweden must adapt to functioning as part of a larger team rather than solely focusing on national defence. This adjustment includes collaborating with allied forces and contributing to the defence of not just Swedish territory but also that of fellow Nato members.

(3.) Changing Power Dynamics: Joining Nato alters Sweden's traditional perception of power dynamics in potential conflicts. While historically viewing itself as a smaller state vulnerable to larger adversaries, membership in Nato aligns Sweden with a coalition possessing significant economic and demographic advantages over potential adversaries like Russia.

(4.) Enhanced Collective Defence: By becoming part of Nato, Sweden gains access to the combined military capabilities of the alliance's 32 member countries. This collective strength, extending from Turkey in the south to Svalbard in the Arctic, bolsters Sweden's defence capabilities and cuts the likelihood of conflict initiation due to deterrence.

To sum up, Sweden's Nato membership marks a massive shift in its defence approach, placing emphasis on collaboration, collective security, and a more comprehensive strategy within the alliance framework.

(With inputs from agencies)