Haniyeh’s assassination sparks regional tensions, poses diplomatic challenge for India

Middle East Tensions Surge (File)

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran early Wednesday morning, an attack that has heightened fears of a broader Middle East conflict. Both Hamas and Iran's Revolutionary Guards confirmed his death, which occurred hours after he attended the inauguration of Iran's new president.

Israel, widely suspected of carrying out the strike, has not commented on the incident. According to senior Hamas official Khalil Al-Hayya, Haniyeh was killed by a direct missile hit at a state guesthouse, as reported by witnesses present at the scene.

India remained silent a day after Haniyeh's assassination, reflecting its delicate position due to close ties with both Iran and Israel. This comes amid ongoing tensions following the October 7, 2023, attacks in Israel. On the day of the assassination, Union Minister Nitin Gadkari was in Tehran for the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian. India’s response remains cautious as Iranian authorities have yet to disclose full details about Haniyeh’s death.

The assassination has heightened global and regional concerns.

India is carefully assessing the implications of Haniyeh’s assassination, mindful of its delicate relations with both Iran and Israel. The killing has heightened regional tensions, impacting a region vital to India, which is home to about nine million expatriates and supplies nearly two-thirds of its crude oil. The situation in Tehran remains tense, with national mourning and restricted internet access following the attack.

India's immediate concern is regional stability, while its response will be cautious due to the sensitive nature of the targeted killing on foreign soil. The incident underscores India’s delicate position in the West Asian region, as it balances its condemnation of the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel with its support for a two-state solution, without officially designating Hamas as a terrorist organisation.

Haniyeh's assassination is seen as a significant victory for Israel, aligning with its goal to neutralise Hamas, a key objective of Operation Swords of Iron. This development provides a temporary reprieve for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has faced intense scrutiny and political pressure to finalise a hostage deal with Hamas, mediated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar. The killing is likely to disrupt these negotiations and extend the Gaza conflict, thereby bolstering Netanyahu's position and prolonging his tenure until the war concludes.

The assassination of Haniyeh in Tehran marks a significant escalation, indicating that Hamas leaders are not secure under Iranian protection. Haniyeh, previously sheltered in Qatar, was killed after meeting Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. This act will likely intensify calls for retaliation from both Iran and Hamas, putting pressure on President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Pezeshkian, who campaigned on improving relations with the West to address economic challenges, now faces demands from the IRGC and hardliners to respond strongly. He has vowed to defend Iran's honour and make the "terrorist occupiers" regret their actions. The coming days will test his political acumen, especially in negotiating with Iran’s Supreme Leader on how to address the fallout from the assassination.

Hamas views Haniyeh's assassination as a major provocation, condemning it as a "treacherous Zionist raid" after he attends the Iranian President's inauguration. This act is expected to escalate tensions, with Hamas and Iran likely seeking retaliation.

The incident, following nine months of the Gaza conflict and previous escalation threats, has heightened regional concerns. Qatar, Turkey, and the Yemeni Houthis have condemned the assassination, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE are closely observing the situation. The development risks broadening the regional conflict, marking a pivotal moment for West Asian stability.

As the US election campaign intensifies, Vice President Kamala Harris is emerging as a key Democratic candidate, aiming to influence the party’s presidential race and select her running mate. Harris has indicated a tougher stance on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Gaza conflict, focusing on appealing to younger Democratic voters. Her position contrasts with President Joe Biden's more moderate approach.

The recent assassination complicates her strategy, requiring her to devise a response if regional tensions escalate further, adding pressure to her campaign as she navigates these critical issues.

The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh could either hinder or advance peace negotiations between Israel and Hamas. The ongoing war, which has caused significant casualties and a humanitarian crisis in Gaza, was ignited by a Hamas attack on October 7, resulting in numerous deaths and captives.

Ceasefire talks have been challenging, with Prime Minister Netanyahu criticised for undermining progress to protect his coalition government. The assassination might be used by Netanyahu to justify a ceasefire and consolidate his position, although it could also complicate future negotiations if a less conciliatory Hamas leader replaces Haniyeh.