Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ordered a direct attack on Israel in response to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, according to The New York Times, citing three Iranian officials.
Officials aware of the development said that Khamenei authorised the strike during an emergency meeting of Iran's Supreme National Security Council shortly after Haniyeh's death was announced. Haniyeh was in Tehran for the swearing-in of Iran's new president Masoud Pezeshkian and was killed around 2 am local time following his attendance at the ceremony and a meeting with Khamenei.
Both Iran and Hamas blamed Israel for the killing, though Israel has neither confirmed nor denied responsibility. Khamenei has instructed military leaders from the Revolutionary Guards and the army to prepare both offensive and defensive strategies in case of conflict escalation. Iranian military commanders are reportedly considering a drone and missile attack on military targets near Tel Aviv and Haifa while avoiding civilian targets.
The New York Times quoted Iranian officials, "Now it is unclear how forcefully Iran will respond, and whether it will once again calibrate its attack to steer clear of escalation. Iranian military commanders are considering another combination attack of drones and missiles on military targets in the vicinity of Tel Aviv and Haifa, but would make a point of avoiding strikes on civilian targets."
One option being considered is a coordinated attack from Iran and other allied fronts such as Yemen, Syria, and Iraq. The New York Times noted that Israel has a history of targeting its enemies abroad, including Iranian nuclear scientists and military commanders.
Throughout the nearly 10-month-long war in Gaza, Iran has pressured Israel through increased attacks by its allies and proxies while avoiding a full-scale war. In April, Iran launched a missile and drone barrage against Israel in retaliation for an Israeli strike on its embassy compound in Damascus, which killed several Iranian military commanders.
Khamenei publicly indicated that Iran would retaliate, stating, "We see avenging his blood our duty," and warned that Israel had paved the way for "a severe punishment." Various Iranian officials, including President Pezeshkian, the foreign ministry, the Revolutionary Guards, and Iran's UN mission, have declared Iran's intent to strike back against Israel and protect its sovereignty.
Iran and its regional allies, including Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and various militias in Iraq, form the "axis of resistance." Leaders of these groups were in Tehran for Pezeshkian's swearing-in. Analysts suggest Tehran views retaliation as necessary to avenge Haniyeh's death and deter Israel from targeting other key figures such as Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah or General Ismail Qaani, the commander of the Quds Forces.
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