China Watch | Nancy Pelosi's visit gave China pretext to test PLA's enhanced capability to blockade Taiwan: Richard McGregor

Richard McGregor, Journalist and Author

Note to readers: China’s ruling Communist party (CCP) holds an important meeting every five years that has analysts and diplomats parsing for clues into the country’s future. The 20th party congress is due to be held in Beijing in November. Here is the first of a series of interviews with Chinese experts and watchers in the run-up to the conference.

The 20th Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) scheduled for November is set to be one of the most consequential gatherings of China’s ruling party in decades. In this gathering, China’s President Xi Jinping will seek an unprecedented five-year third term in office.

If the Party Congress endorses a third term for him, Xi, who is the party’s General Secretary and Chairman of China’s Central Military Commission, could become the most powerful leader in China since Mao Zedong and stay in power for life.

Xi is pursuing the Chinese dream or 'The great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation', which aims to make China the most powerful and influential country in the world by 2049 –the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

Since coming to power in 2012, Xi has consolidated his position by pushing through an anti-corruption drive that reformed the party and marginalised his rivals. He also broke away from the policy of his predecessors, who believed China must bide its time to ensure rapid economic growth and influence by integrating itself into the existing global order. But Xi seems to be in a hurry to change the global order in China’s favour.

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In his assessment, the power and influence of the West, particularly that of the US, is in a rapid decline. This provides China with the opportunity to reshape the world order according to its advantage. To protect its ‘core interest’ China has pursued an aggressive foreign policy that has entangled it in territorial disputes with several countries in the neighbourhood, including India. It has also been involved in a major tussle with the US over trade and technology issues.

Its coercive military drills around Taiwan in recent weeks indicated that China will not hesitate to use force to protect its core interest. Under Xi, China has adopted ‘Wolf warrior diplomacy’, an aggressive style of diplomacy which is coercive, confrontational and combative, with its proponents loudly denouncing any perceived criticism of the Chinese government and its policies on social media and in interviews.

Richard McGregor is one of the leading commentators on China and a senior fellow at Australia’s Lowy Institute. He is also a journalist and author who has served in Beijing and Washington as bureau chief of the Financial Times. His book, The Party: The Secret World of China’s Communist Rulers, is widely acclaimed and considered one of the most insightful works on the functioning of the CCP. He spoke to Pranay Sharma on Xi Jinping’s leadership, the ‘Wolf Warrior diplomacy’ and how some recent developments in the region and beyond have impacted China. The interview:

How serious a challenge did the Taiwan Strait crisis pose for Xi Jinping before the 20th Congress which will endorse his third term?

It was obviously a challenge but one that Xi – and the system and the military – were well-prepared for. The main challenge was to have an appropriately tough response without going too far, without the risk of triggering some kind of military pushback from Taiwan and the US. In some ways, US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit gave Xi a welcome pretext to test out and display the People's Liberation Army's enhanced capability to blockade Taiwan, which they did.

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What does a record third term for Xi as party leader mean for China and the world?

It means that the world's most populous country, with the fastest growing market and a determined superpower rival to the US across multiple spectrums, will be in the hands, more or less, of a single man, atop an opaque system which is hostile to the outside world.

Deng Xiaoping had enforced a two-term limit for top leaders to ensure China doesn’t have another Mao Zedong. But what changed after 2017, is it a reflection of an inherent flaw in the Chinese Communist Party?

In theory, Deng had solved what you describe as an inherent flaw. It turns out that he hadn't. You can argue this is indeed a flaw in the system. Xi might argue the opposite – that only a strong leader atop a powerful and highly motivated single ruling party can steer China in the direction it needs to go.

As premier, Li Keqiang was mostly marginalised. But Xi Jinping often sought his expertise in a crisis — during the Covid outbreak in Wuhan and when he needed to revive the economy in the wake of the ‘zero Covid’ policy. Will it be difficult to find a replacement for Li?

It is not so much the question of finding a replacement for Li. It is whether that person has any power to do what has traditionally been the Premier's most important task, to oversee economic policy. That remains an open question. In the past ten years, Xi has dominated economic policy, with average results.

How did the Ukraine war affect China’s relationship with Europe? What will Xi have to do to put it back on track?

China's relations with Europe have been irreparably damaged at a political level. At a commercial level, they remain strong. In the past, the European businesses tail-wagged the political dog in Brussels. That is not the case at the moment, but China has not given up on using the size of its market to create political leverage. It has worked in the past. As the horror of the Ukraine war recedes, it might work again in the future.

If in the new Chinese set-up loyalty to Xi Jinping counts more than anything else what happens to meritocracy? How will it affect China’s future growth and development?

A good question. Chinese meritocracy is not perfect but performance does count in the system. The more that is replaced by loyalty to Xi alone, the worse the system will function, to China's long-term detriment.

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Will the “wolf warriors” be the face of China to the outside world? Or a more modest approach in its engagement with neighbours and countries around the world is in the offing?

The sheer decibel level of the 'wolf warriors' will be wound back but the essential content of their message – that this is China's time and we had all better get used to it – is here to stay for some years to come. The key question is whether other countries are willing to pay a short-term price to resist the threats issued by the 'wolf warriors.' Unless that happens, they will not change, neither in form nor in substance.