In 2016, Trump’s controversial remarks about Mexican immigrants and his unfounded claims regarding Barack Obama’s birthplace painted a contentious picture of his candidacy. However, polling data from the New York Times/Siena College suggests that Trump may now be receiving unprecedented support among Black and Latino voters—outperforming all Republican nominees since 1964. It is important to note that while Trump has gained some ground with Black and Hispanic voters compared to previous Republican candidates, he still does not command majority support from these groups. Nevertheless, given the substantial margins by which Democrats have traditionally secured these demographics, even modest support can yield significant political gains. For instance, in Arizona, nearly 25 per cent of voters in the upcoming election are expected to be Latino, with almost 20 per cent in neighbouring Nevada. In Georgia, Black voters account for about 30 per cent of the electorate. As these are all key swing states, minor shifts in voting patterns could have a substantial impact on the election outcome. To counterbalance these gains, a potential Democratic victory would depend on strong support and turnout from college-educated white voters and suburban residents, including those who leaned Republican before the Trump era.
first published: Oct 23, 2024 03:26 pm
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