Future of jobs is uncertain; future of work is not

Jobs are shaped by economies and the times we live in, and it is important to pause and imagine what we want them to be like in our near and distant future. (Ruslan Burkala via Pexels)

In May last year, I was so inspired by Isaac Asimov and the blissfully bright job economy that I thought work will die/ we will all be rich enough to not work. World events, however, have proven otherwise. We are gripped by several ropes, some tight, some not yet - there is the artificial intelligence, which is creating a grim reality; there are two wars being fought; and then there is the souring of the relationship between the employer and the employee. What was once a solid bond, is now fraught with mistrust. Layoffs, forced return to office (RTO), debates around 70-hour work weeks have dropped the facade, and while employees may not be leaving jobs, according to Gallup data in June 2023, 59 percent of 122,416 of global workers are not engaged at work.

This gets me thinking about the nature of work and jobs itself. The former is a reflection of what we attach identities to as individuals and the latter is how we pay the bills. According to the International Labour Organisation’s (ILO's) World Employment and Social Outlook Trends 2023, the global jobs gap stood at 473 million people in 2022, corresponding to a jobs gap rate of 12.3 percent - the jobs gap rate is a new measure of the unmet need for employment in the world. The report also highlights that the global employment rate is expected to expand at 1 percent in 2023, compared to the 2.3 percent growth rate in 2022. Global unemployment is projected to reach 208 million and the question then is will jobs really pay the bills?

Let’s define work and jobs.

How do we recover from a decline of jobs?

The last time in known history a similar global event occurred was during the Great Depression from 1929 to the mid-1930s. Unemployment had then exceeded 20 percent and while we are not there yet (and may not be), should the ups and downs of the job market impact us so much if we were obsessed with work instead of jobs?

Also read: AI is reshaping the workplace – but what does it mean for the health and well-being of workers?

What I mean is, hypothetically, this is also a great time for individuals to go deeper and invest in skill sets that stand the test of time and it is only at times like these that true fission and innovation take place. We break away from depressive jobs and create more meaningful work. Could this be the time when subjects like humanities, arts and agriculture come back to the fore? Especially when we are faced with the greatest technological innovations, it could be a missed opportunity if none of our human-ness reflects on them.

Going back a little further in history - it was during the Italian renaissance (15th and 16th centuries) that the humanities thrived and even scientists were looked up as artists. Their work/ vocation/ career was not ‘only’ their job, but rather a contribution to the larger society or community they were a part of.

"(Desk/ modern) jobs are a small blip in the grand scheme of how long we have been around as human beings - they are probably only 300-400 years old,” says Varun Mayya, CEO at Aeos, a company building games and content for a post AI world. "Computer jobs disappearing may not really affect us - we might go back to what we used to do. However, that too can get disrupted over the next decade. In the long term, humanity will have to figure a socialist + capitalist outcome where humans are provided for."

The point being: we should now be obsessed with what work means to us (as individuals, communities and societies) and think more about how our jobs can reflect this outcome as never in the history that I can recall, have we been in a time when jobs have lost their meaning as much as now.

One can argue that we might not need to work and that we can be provided for - however, work, even in a utopian society, cannot lose meaning.

Also read: Skills-first hiring gains momentum in India Inc, but has hurdles

Humans are not made for vacations or freebies

Imagine you are on a long vacation or you have all the money in the world and do not have to work. Feel uncomfortable? Well, for most people the feeling of not having a larger purpose can be disconcerting. Let me share a few examples - countries like Iran, Kenya and Alaska have been running basic income or universal basic income (UBI) initiatives for over ten years. However, economists have found that “the dividend had no effect on employment” overall. While UBI does have positive effects (on nutrition and education), it does not, however, mean people will stop working.

Similarly, if you are into sci-fi, the ‘Culture Series’ by Scottish author Iain Banks will show you how, despite being most advanced with AI, humanoids still want to be a part of a ‘mission’ and contribute to society (in good or bad ways). Jobs are shaped by economies and the times we live in, and it is important to pause and imagine what we want them to be like in our near and distant future.

According to Pareen Lathia, Cofounder of BuidlersTribe, a globally distributed community that helps early-stage startups grow, “Human labour will become more valuable at a time when technology is abundant.” In a world like this, he adds, humans will be more inclined to "find a purpose". This situation could be utopian for those with purpose and dystopian for those without it. He further adds, “If I were in my 20s, I would try to understand what I love to do for a decade and then work hard at it."

Also read: Demand for 5 IT job roles drops by 35% amid automation, rising cloud-based solutions

Where does that leave us?

Don’t get me wrong. I am not saying we don’t need jobs. We do. I am only saying, we also have to think about the quality of work we do. Therefore, this results in two things:

1) For the short term: start exploring what else you are good at (not the only, but a possible way out) - in addition to the work you already do. ‘Find the spot where your interests and marketable skills intersect and start building knowledge, network and experience. The technological disruption most sectors are facing is creating new skills gaps every day, and certain skills are in higher demand than ever. I started mentoring startups in order to meet interesting people, immerse myself in different sectors and learn more about how innovation works - and what holds it back. All of this is valuable in an environment where there is an increasing need for experienced operators who can bridge between new technologies and business impact’ shares Moritz Kaffsak, founder of Portfolio Careers in Asia, a community of more than 100 senior professionals looking to diversify their careers via fractional roles, side projects and mentorships.

Also read: Can India shield jobs from GenAI disruption?

2) For the long term - while this is very hard to predict, some common sentiments I have heard include - i) UBI could become a possibility and that can give us an opportunity to do more meaningful work ii) AI can help improve our productivity and that can leave more time on hand for us - maybe it creates jobs or maybe it doesn’t (that is still status quo) iii) maybe humans will have to be born with super human tendencies or acquire them post birth iv) or, that jobs may not exist completely. Whatever it is, the truth remains that even without jobs, humans will need work.

Says Mayya, "I live my life in projects - we have seen many successes and many failures. My core skill is figuring out opportunities and becoming very good at it in a short period of time. I am already building for a world where humans have a lot of time at hand - I am building games and connecting them to the real world. We have very advanced tech in our hands, and I am leveraging that."

Also read: 63% Gen Z students fear AI will cause instability in job roles, employment: Survey

Ultimately humans are seekers and we will keep seeking in different forms - like Jim Careey said, "I think everybody should get rich and famous and do everything they ever dreamed of so they can see that it's not the answer.”

If that is not enough, imagine this - you have already worked your way through a million dollars and have to start afresh - what would you do next?