A Modi-Xi meet could expedite disengagement along the LAC

Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping. (File photi)

Indian policy planners are in two minds whether the time is right for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The debate over a possible meeting of the two leaders in the Indian diplomatic establishment has intensified in the wake of the recent disengagement of Chinese and Indian troops from Patrolling Point 15 in the larger Gogra-Hot Spring area of eastern Ladakh.

Some bigger and important friction-points along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) remain, where troops of the two sides are present in heavy numbers. No disengagement has taken place in these areas even after several rounds of diplomatic and military-level negotiations.

Both Modi and Xi will be present at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan on September 15 and 16. This will be Xi’s first visit outside the country in two years.

Though the two leaders are likely to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi,  and other Central Asian leaders, there has been no confirmation yet of a Modi-Xi meeting.

A section of the Indian diplomatic establishment feels that a meeting between Modi and Xi could expedite disengagement of troops from the remaining friction points.

But others in the establishment argue that resumption of talks at the highest level would encourage Chinese troops to do nothing more towards disengagement, rather, consolidate their position in the remaining friction points.

Modi and Xi last met at Mamallapuram in Tamil Nadu in 2019.

Future summits between the two leaders were put on hold by India when China unilaterally began a military build-up in eastern Ladakh from April 2020 in violation of agreements and protocols between the two sides

The Chinese action forced India to mobilise troops, and soon it led to a military stand-off between the two sides and subsequently, to bloody clashes shattering the peace and tranquillity along the LAC that had existed since 1976.

Several rounds of talks between the two sides in the past months had led to the disengagement of troops in some of the flash-points. The Gogra-Hot Spring disengagement, considered to be a “low-hanging fruit,” is the latest and its success has renewed speculation about a Modi-Xi meeting.

It has also raised hopes in India that it will pave the way for disengagement in other bigger and strategically important points, like Demchok and Depsang.

India had stated that there would be no normalisation of bilateral relations unless China withdrew all its troops to the pre-April 2020 position.

The Indian external affairs minister, S Jaishankar, has on a number of occasions emphasised that improvement in Sino-Indian relations was dependent on the situation at the LAC.

This meant that Delhi would not make efforts to normalise ties with China unless it disengaged its troops from all the points.

Indian diplomats and military officials are wary of China’s “two steps forward, one step backward” strategy. From past experience, Indian officials have learnt that this means that if both sides agreed to move one step backward, China would actually try and gain ‘one-step’ at every negotiation.

Will India, therefore, take the risk of going for talks with Xi without any categorical assurance from Beijing that troops would be withdrawn from the remaining flash-points within a given timeframe?

In recent weeks there have been other positive developments in India-China relations. The 16th round of military-level talks between the two sides had led to a joint statement to end the stand-off at the LAC and prevent further escalation along the front.

While delivering a lecture in Delhi last month, Jaishankar had underscored the necessity of peaceful and cooperative relations between India and China for the 21st century to be an Asian century.

China had responded positively to Jaishankar’s remarks by pointing out that India and China would both benefit from a cooperative relationship.

In the past few days, Chinese commentators have also praised India for maintaining strategic independence despite a close relationship with the United States. They pointed out that India’s approach to developing ties with the US was different from that of Australia and Japan, both of whom had bound themselves tightly to America’s anti-China policy.

The Chinese experts said that India was the only country in the Quad that had neither sanctioned nor condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

On Thursday, during a two-plus-two meeting between India and Japan in Tokyo, Japanese officials called for a stepping up of the security cooperation with India in view of the Ukraine situation, and slammed China for its aggressive policies in the East and South China Seas.

Meanwhile, India held a series of meetings in Delhi this week with Quad partners Australia, the US, and Japan to discuss regional and global developments of mutual concern and interest.

The meetings indicate that even if Delhi was paving the way for a possible Modi-Xi meet, it would not stop engaging with America and its Asian allies to maintain strategic independence and to keep its options wide open.