Will Xi and Modi meet on the sidelines of the SCO summit next month?

Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping. (File photi)

Speculation has risen in the past few days of a possible meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting in Uzbekistan next month.

Both leaders are likely to be present at the meeting scheduled for the middle of September.

But despite expectations in sections of the strategic community about a resumption of dialogue between India and China at the highest political level, the possibility of a Xi-Modi summit looks remote.

Former Indian diplomats, who in the past had been tasked with organising such meetings, said so far there has been no visible sign of preparatory groundwork that may justify a meeting between the Chinese President and the Indian Prime Minister.

The speculation about a meeting came in the backdrop of the 16th round of military talks between India and China to end the standoff at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and prevent further escalation of tension on their frontiers.

Asian Century

This was followed by the Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s remarks at a recent lecture about the necessity of Sino-Indian cooperation to turn the 21st century into an Asian Century.

China reacted to the Indian foreign minister’s observation with enthusiasm and spoke about the strong potential of an India-China relationship of cooperation for mutual benefit.

But more importantly, media reports that the Chinese President would attend the SCO meeting in person fuelled speculation and encouraged comments on a possible Xi-Modi meeting.

The Chinese President had refused to travel outside China since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out in the country. Therefore, his presence in Uzbekistan opens up the possibility of a series of meetings on the sidelines of the SCO summit, including one with Modi.

A meeting with the Indian Prime Minister is important for China, but not vital. If the two leaders meet on the sidelines of the SCO meeting, it would be a good photo opportunity for Beijing.

To be sure, a meeting between Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin in the context of the ongoing Ukraine war and its impact on the global economy could be the highlight of the SCO meeting.

Normalisation path  

For Beijing, a meeting between the Chinese President and the Indian Prime Minister would be an opportunity to signal that despite the border standoff, the two neighbours were on the path of normalising their ties.

China will interpret the meeting as an acceptance by India of its argument that despite the LAC standoff, the two could cooperate on economic development and other areas of mutual interest while allowing the standoff in eastern Ladakh to be resolved gradually through peaceful means.

In recent months China had tried to convince the Indian leadership that this is a possible way forward. But India has insisted that only normalisation of the situation at the LAC could lead to normalisation of the overall bilateral relationship between India and China.

Senior Indian military officials, too, had been telling their Chinese counterpart to de-escalate and disengage from the remaining flashpoints at the LAC. It was indicated that only the completion of such a process can lead to the lowering of tension on the frontiers.

No preparatory meetings 

But it is the lack of senior officials’ meeting that has raised doubts about the Xi-Modi summit. The two leaders have met each other several times since 2014. But these meetings were preceded by diplomats and other senior officials meeting to prepare the issues that the two leaders would discuss to find a mutual understanding and agreement at the end of their meeting.

Even during the informal summit between the Chinese President and the Indian Prime Minister in Wuhan, senior officials of the two sides were engaged in a series of meetings to prepare for the summit.

Such preparatory work by diplomats is not only applicable to India and China, but something that most countries follow before a summit of their top leaders. Most famously, this was followed also in 1972 before American President Richard Nixon’s meeting with Chinese supremo Mao Zedong.

So far there is no official confirmation from the Chinese side that Xi Jinping would be present in person for the SCO meeting. But even if he and Modi are both present there, it does not necessarily translate into a summit between the two.

Little enthusiasm 

The most pertinent question for India remains as to what it would gain by agreeing to a meeting between the Chinese President and the Indian Prime Minister?

There is no guarantee that a meeting of the two leaders would expedite the process of disengagement and de-escalation of Chinese troops from the remaining flashpoints at the LAC.

Without any categoric assurance about a change in its position taking place to bring down the tension at the frontiers and normalise relations between the two sides, would India agree to a meeting that could only legitimise Chinese aggression?

The SCO meeting is important and Prime Minister Modi’s presence would allow him to meet other leaders, especially President Putin, as Russia remains one of the most important partners for India. But the same enthusiasm is lacking among many diplomats for a meeting with Xi.

Will Modi throw up another surprise? 

“I would strongly advise against a meeting with the Chinese President before China pulls back its troops from those remaining flashpoints,” said a former Indian ambassador to China.

His remarks reflect the mood among many policy planners in Delhi.

But Modi has often taken “out of the box” decisions that surprised most people in the Indian establishment.

Whether he does that again next month would remain a matter of debate for the next few weeks.