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"We expect CPI inflation to moderate further in February, driven by a fall in food price inflation. However, the core inflation is expected to remain elevated," Credit Suisse chief economist Robert Prior-Wandesforde said in a note today.
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A note from Credit Suisse published Tuesday said some economies in Asia, particularly those hit hard amid last year's tapering panic, such as India and Indonesia, were now more well positioned to withstand another intense bout of volatility.
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India`s economy began a feeble recovery in the July-September period, expanding 4.8 percent - a touch faster than the 4.7 percent growth in the previous three months. The gross domestic product (GDP) data for December quarter is due on February 28.
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A Reuters poll of 26 economists predicted output at factories, mines and utilities shrank an annual 1.2 percent, after rising 2 percent in September.
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While data on Thursday showed euro zone inflation fell to a four-year low of 0.7 percent on year in October, it may not offer much support for the view QE is damping inflation.
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Robert Prior-Wandesforde, Director, Asian Economics Research, Credit Suisse is of the opinion that there won‘t be a rate cut in the June policy but there will be at least two rate cuts post June which will match their expectation of a 175 basis points cut through the year.
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Continued pick up in trade numbers and decline in imports show that the country's external deficit is finally turning around and the fall in oil and gold prices will improve the outlook for the country's strained current account deficit, analysts have said.
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Ashish Parthasarthy of HDFC Bank believes the central bank may only opt for a repo rate cut without a cash reserve ratio or CRR cut.
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Robert Prior-Wandesforde of Credit Suisse says, in an interview to CNBC-TV18, that a surprise fall in core inflation is expected. The India and Southeast Asia economist expects the RBI to cut the repo rate by 25 bps on March 19 and adds that the central bank is likely to maintain focus on WPI inflation rather than on the CPI
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Robert Prior-Wandesforde of Credit Suisse explains on CNBC-TV18 that a 25-bps cut in rates is most likely. He highlights the underlying tug-of-war between the government and the RBI on boosting growth and the implementation of measures to control the current account deficit (CAD).
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Leading brokerage Credit Suisse has said the economy will grow faster than anticipated as it is entering a "sweet spot" with both inflation and the twin deficits likely to throw up surprises on the upside this year.
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Robert Prior-Wandesforde of Credit Suisse explains on CNBC-TV18 that he expects a 125-bps cut in rates across the year based on indications by the RBI on shifting its focus from inflation to growth with the government announcing reforms that have being to boost economic activity.
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Robert Prior-Wandesforde, economist, India and Southeast Asia, Credit Suisse explains to CNBC-TV18 that he expects the IIP data to reveal an upside surprise and estimates that Consumer Price Inflation will fall and that will induce the RBI to cut rates in January.
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Robert Prior-Wandesforde of Credit Suisse believes there can be a downside surprise to the IIP numbers and expects inflation to be at 7.8 percent.
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Credit Suisse has cut its GDP numbers to 6 percent versus 6.5 percent for FY13 and 7.2 percent versus 7.8 percent for FY14.
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The April-June quarter gross domestic product (GDP) will be announced today. In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Robert Prior-Wandesforde, Credit Suisse says his expectation is 5.8% largely on account of base effect. "It is very difficult to pinpoint this number. It could be in a range of 4.5% to 6.5%," he adds.
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Even though the stock market may seem buoyant, Robert Prior-Wandesforde of Credit Suisse says one cannot expect any meaningful pick-up in the economy till rates are cut. And even after that, he says, the economy will take at least a year to revive its growth rate.
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Robert Prior-Wandesforde of Credit Suisse says, he expects the next rate cut in October. "We still expect 125 bps in total, but very much back loaded, as far as the fiscal year is concerned," he adds.
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Robert Prior-Wandesforde, head of India & South East Asia economics, Credit Suisse was expecting an inflation reading at 6.6% today. However, the disappointing numbers now only signal more trouble for the market ahead.
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If the World Bank is correct, 2012 will see the second slowest year of global economic growth in a decade, at a level consistent with a world recession that, like the 2008/2009 financial crisis, would not spare Asia.
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The slowdown in China`s economy has many economists predicting the country will ease monetary policy in 2012, but the moves may not be all in one direction, with one economist predicting the central bank will hike rates, even as it reduces the reserve requirement ratios (RRR) for banks.
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The Reserve Bank of India will announce the third quarter monetary policy review on January 24. Robert Prior-Wandesforde, head of India and South East Asia economics at Credit Suisse says, January move is very unlikely. “I think it is little early to expect a move in January.”
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According to Robert Prior-Wandesforde of Credit Suisse, there is less likelihood of any changes in key policy rates coming out of tomorrow's credit policy meet.
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Robert Prior-Wandesforde of Credit Suisse feels that the interest rate hikes by RBI are likely to impact India’s growth story. He expects another 25 basis points rate hike in October 25. However, he told CNBC-TV18 that India might start outperforming early in calendar 2012.
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In an interview on CNBC-TV18, Robert Prior-Wandesforde, Head of India & South East Asia Economics, Credit Suisse says he expects the RBI to hike interest rates by 25 basis points at the next credit meeting scheduled on September 16.
