CUB may underperform in the coming months despite a good recovery seen by the bank after pandemic
Parekh is now betting on Union Budget to revive the consumption story. He said that these are difficult times and expects the Finance Ministry to introduce sops for industry as well for the individuals.
The RBI left the cash reserve ratio unchanged at 4 percent, as expected, and announced that the incremental CRR of 100 percent will stand withdrawn from 10 December. The increase in the market stabilisation securities ceiling to INR6trn has boosted the RBI‘s firepower to absorb liquidity.
The withdrawal of old Rs 500 and 1,000 notes "could result in a possible temporary reduction in inflation of the order of 10-15 basis points in Q3 (October-December period", the central bank said in the Fifth Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement Resolution of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unexpectedly kept its policy repo rate unchanged at 6.25 percent on Wednesday, despite calls for action as an intense cash shortage threatens to slam the brakes on the world's fastest growing major economy.
In a move that is expected to lead to lower rates for housing EMIs, car loans and corporate borrowing, the Reserve Bank reduced the short term lending rate (repo rate) by 0.25 percent to 6-year low of 6.25 percent in the fourth bi-monthly monetary policy statement.
Post the monetary policy meet today, Ashok Lavasa told CNBC-TV18 that inflation should remain in control in the coming days and expects banks to pass on the rate cut to its borrowers.
Bankex gained around 0.4 percent with SBI gaining 2 percent while ICICI Bank was up 1 percent from previous close on expectations that to rate cut may lead to lower rates for housing EMIs, car loans and corporate borrowing.
Post the monetary policy meet, Keki Mistry, VC and CEO of HDFC told CNBC-TV18 that the inflation expectations gave RBI impetus to cut rates.
Finance Secretary Ashok Lavasa said RBI and the government are on the same page with regard to inflation target and the government is taking all measures possible to keep inflation within the range of 2-6 percent.
The Reserve Bank reduced the short term lending rate (repo rate) by 0.25 percent to 6-year low of 6.25 percent in the fourth bi-monthly monetary policy statement.
Despite this warning, the RBI has pegged the GVA growth of 7.6 percent for the current fiscal and 7.9 percent the year after.
"While the RBI has cut the repo rate by 25 basis points, the policy statement remains less dovish in its guidance. It still sees upside risk to inflation target that has to be achieved by March end. While today's rate cut would accentuate the bond rally, I don't see much impact on the bank lending rates."
“While the language is cautious, trajectory of CPI will determine further rate cuts,†Anant Narayan, Head - Financial Markets, Standard Chartered Bank says adding that going to 4 percent inflation by March 2018 is looking difficult as of now.
The RBI retained its inflation projections (i.e. of a central trajectory towards 5 percent by March 2017) and suggested that the room for rate cuts could still arise in the future - if progress in the monsoon continues to be steady and food prices ease as expected.
In a report on Tuesday, CARE Ratings said it expects a 25 basis points rate cut in the October-December quarter, adding that GDP forecast of 7.8 percent for FY17 and Consumer Price Index inflation of 5-5.5 percent by end of March 2017 also hold.
PHD Chamber of Commerce President Mahesh Gupta said "there is a lot of scope to reduce the repo rate as good monsoon is visible and inflationary expectations are benign".
However, on the negative side RBI noted that (i) retail inflation in the month of June was at a 22nd month high, mainly driven by food items, (ii) Brexit - has increased the volatility in global financial markets worldwide, resulting in investors looking for safe havens.
"To emphasise this point, we announced an Open Market Purchase today. The RBI will proceed in a calibrated way towards the goal of eliminating the structural deficit. When we have done so, episodes of systemic surplus and systemic deficit should be evenly balanced," he said.
Rajan, who demits office on September 4 after completion of 3-year tenure, also said that today's was likely the last of the Governor-led monetary policy reviews, as the future ones will be carried out by the six-member panel.
The underlying theme of the RBI's policy statement was continuity, with no change in the policy rate, inflation or growth targets. Moreover, the monetary policy stance remains accommodative and the liquidity strategy continues to aim to reduce the liquidity deficit.
Reserve Bank's decision to leave policy interest rates unchanged today was no surprise to market participants, in line with transparent and predictable monetary policy, Moody's Investors Service said in a statement.
The benchmark 10-year bond yield fell as much as 6 basis points to its lowest in nearly seven years at 7.11 percent, while the present benchmark bond 2026 yield hit its life-low.
In its 3rd bi-monthly monetary policy review, RBI said the momentum of growth is "expected to be quickened" by the normal monsoon raising agricultural growth and rural demand, as well as by the stimulus to consumption spending that can be expected from the 7th Central Pay Commission's award.
Decoding Raghuram Rajan‘s commentary, Deutsche Bank Chief Economist (Asia, Global Markets Research) Taimur Baig said room for another rate cut is zero as there is an upside in inflation outlook.