Samiran Chakraborty of Citi said it is a mystery why Indian bond yields haven't fallen, saying that the RBI can't do much to push yields below 7.4 percent.
According to CRISIL Research, as per the monthly numbers released by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI), the Indian mutual fund industry‘s month-end assets under management (AUM) rose 7 percent to a record high of Rs 8,90,000 crore in November.
The range for the 10-year yield is seen between 7.40-7.50 percent, says Ramanathan K, ING Invst Mgmt.
Value buying could emerge on an uptick in yields due to the low growth environment and the downward inflation trajectory, says Vivek Rajpal, Nomura.
On the back of suprisingly benign inflation reading for April and what investors interpreted as unexpectedly dovish comments from RBI Governor Duvvuri Subbarao last week, benchmark bond yields have plunged to their lowest since December 2009.
Profit-booking in the short-term cannot be ruled out given the recent rally. The range for the 10-year yield is seen between 7.40-7.50 percent, says Ramanathan K, ING Invst Mgmt.
Unlike most experts, Chetan Ahya, managing director, Morgan Stanley feels that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will keep rates unchanged in its May policy.
At the onset of the new financial year (2013-14), bank borrowings from RBI dropped sharply on Thursday to about Rs 52,100 crore as against a high of Rs 1.75 lakh crore recorded on March 28, FY13. The new low is also below the central bank's comfort zone for liquidity currently stood at around Rs 68,000.
High bank borrowings continues to exacerbate liquidity tightness in the system. Lenders net borrowed nearly Rs 1.61 lakh crore from the Reserve Bank of India's daily borrowing window on last Tuesday, the penultimate money market working day in the financial year 2012-13.
Ananth Narayan of Standard Chartered Bank says that the fiscal-deficit target of 4.8 percent for FY14 is tough to achieve and expect yields to stabilise at current levels
Markets are likely to remain in a narrow trading range given the upcoming supply of goverment securities and lack of support this week from OMOs, says Ramanathan K, ING Investment Mgmt.
Bond yields are likely to nudge down around 7.8 percent in the near term as rate cut hopes get stronger, says Stanchart economist Anant Narayan to CNBC-TV18.
The Reserve Bank today said it will pump in Rs 8,000 crore in the market on December 28 by buying government securities to ease the liquidity situation.
Yields are likely to be well supported given RBI's clear indication of a rate cut in its January policy, says Ramanathan K, ING Invst Mgmt.
RBI Deputy Governor Subir Gokarn today said the appreciation of the rupee and softening of commodity prices will give the central bank more leg-room to ease the monetary regime going forward.
Liquidity infusion through OMOs has improved sentiment. Bond markets will be sensitive to any additional borrowing by the government, says Suresh Prabhu, Money Market Analyst.
British lender Barclays today said the Reserve Bank is likely to leave the policy rates unchanged at the December 18 review and that a lending rate cut may happen only in the January policy announcement.
Taimur Baig of Deutsche Bank expects the current account deficit (CAD) to remain at 3-3.5 percent for two years. Recently, the government pegged that the current account deficit during this fiscal to be at 3.5 per cent of the GDP, which was much higher than expected levels.
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for the month of August grew at 2.7 percent versus a paltry -0.2 percent (revised from 0.1) in July. In fact, from April to July, the IIP has seen a contraction of 0.1 percent.
The stock market has rallied over 400 points, cheering the government decision to cut diesel price by sharp Rs 5/litre and Ben Bernanke‘s decision to pump in USD 40 billion via bond purchases to improve the US economy. However, both the events do not warrant any immediate change in the monetary policy stance by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
Increased government borrowing posed a challenge for the debt management operations of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in 2011-12. However, the central bank successfully completed the fund raising on behalf of the government of India through efficient open market operations (OMOs).
Deputy Governor of the RBI Subir Gokarn says the central bank's actions are driven by circumstances and that when it feels the need to take action on interest rates it will be taken.
Shailendra Bhandari, MD & CEO, ING Vysya Bank is not too pessimistic and feels that RBI will ease rates at some time. He feels that there may be a rate cut in the next credit policy. In an interview to CNBC-TV8 he said that the repo rates may be cut in the range of 50-75 basis points in FY13.
In an interview with CNBC-TV18, former finance secy S Narayan spoke about his reading of the RBI credit policy and the road ahead.
The country is likely to see fewer bond issuances by companies this financial year because of the prevailing stagflation and high government borrowing, says Arvind Konar, head-fixed income, Almondz Global Securities. Stagflation is when inflation remains high despite a slowing economy.