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"Asset quality will remain a negative driver of the credit profiles of most rated Indian banks and the stock of impaired loans. Non-performing loans (NPLs) and standard restructured loans will still rise during the horizon of our outlook," says Alka Anbarasu, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Analyst.
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The combination of factors such as passage of Goods and Services Tax, implementation of Seventh Pay Commission, besides a good monsoon and the central bank cutting rates is likely to trigger earnings recovery for companies going ahead, according to Gautam Trivedi, Managing Director and Chief Executive of Religare Capital Markets.
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In an interview to CNBC-TV18, Pawan Singh, Director & CFO of PTC India Financial Services spoke about the latest happenings in his company and sector.
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Katalin Gingold, Head-Equity Research, Cartica Capital is not investing in the finance space. She feels banks need to clean up their NPLs. "The transmission mechanism also needs to be de-clogged. At the moment, we are not betting on PSU banks, but are looking at select private sector banks."
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According to CLSA, Q4 NPL addition is likely to be over Rs 70,000 crore (though a bit down QoQ) and, like Q3, 90 percent of this could be from PSU banks - their stressed loan ratios are now at 11-23 percent.
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Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Anil Agarwal, Head – Research banks, Asia ex-Japan at Morgan Stanley says that the asset quality issues will take more time to run its course especially with a slowing nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth.
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Speaking on the sidelines of a central nank board meeting held in Mizoram on Thursday, Raghuram Rajan said that the Bank of Baroda case does raise some questions over the fraud detection system that is in place right now
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These are incremental changes that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has made to ensure that banks get together and try and save assets from becoming NPLs.
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Bank Nifty has fallen nearly 14 percent year-to-date and almost 23 percent from its all-time highs.
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The indebted country is hoping to wrap up a deal for 86 billion euros (USD 94.75 billion) in fresh loans so it can get parliamentary and other approvals for aid to flow by Aug. 20, when a 3.2 billion euro debt payment is due to the ECB.
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Rajnish Kumar, MD of SBI, says the 5:25 scheme can also help reduce stress on banks. The 5:25 scheme allows banks to extend loans for a longer period of time for infrastructure projects, typically 20-25 years, in a bid to match cash flow of these projects. It can refinance them every 5 or 7 years.
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Calling Greek impact on India to be ‘immaterial‘, S Naren, CIO, ICICI Prudential AMC says market will continue to remain volatile because of the European crisis and the expected US Fed rate hike.
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Deleveraging, cashflow from the commercialisation of projects and refinancing of loans (under the central bank‘s 5/25 scheme) can ease concerns over the ICICI Bank‘s asset quality, says CLSA.
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Prakash Agarwal on India Ratings believes unseasonal rains may affect public sector banks‘ asset quality. Punjab National Bank‘s agri non-performing assets (NPAs) could increase by 6 percent, he added.
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Once the guidelines kick in, banks will have to classify stressed assets as bad loans and hence, make higher provisions or a capital buffer which will directly eat into the profits and banks do not seem to be in a hurry to make use of this window of opportunity that is available to them.
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The bank had slippages of around Rs 1,600 crore versus Rs 786 crore (QoQ) and the fresh restructuring was at Rs 650 crore in Q3. Around Rs 530 crore from restructured account slipped into NPA in Q3.
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The total loans restructured by banks is over 6 lakh crore, so more pain is clearly waiting to come unless growth picks up, which looks tough in the near-term
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While sounding bullish on India's largest bank, the brokerage cautioned that slower-than-expected execution and higher non performing loans could disappoint.
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Going ahead, C Ilango, MD, Can Fin Homes expects company‘s Net Interest Income to increase and net interest margin to improve. In addition, housing company anticipates its new branches to breakeven in 8-9 months, he adds.
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A Kotak Institutional Equities report says net profit of the BSE-30 Index grew 6 percent year-on-year, well below expectation of 10.1 percent growth; while EBITDA grew 1.8 percent, 3.8 percent lower than expectation.
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The bank does not hold large portfolios of stress and aims to bring down its non-performing assets (NPAs) and non-performing loans (NPLs) going ahead.
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IDFC's third quarter consolidated profit grew by 10 percent to Rs 500.68 crore.
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Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Gagan Banga, managing director & chief executive officer, Indiabulls Housing Finance says the the company‘s credit performance is robust keeping in mind the macro performance.
