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RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept its repo rate unchanged at 5.25% after a cumulative cut of 125 basis points since February 2025.
New CPI series set to release next week, FY27 GDP projections deferred to April MPC.
Early fiscal-year forecasts are often revised quickly, keeping focus on evolving macro signals
The February policy is expected maintain the repo rate at 5.25% as the RBI shifts focus from rate cuts to liquidity infusion, experts say.
The RBI targets a 4 percent headline inflation rate within a tolerance band of 2 percent to 6 percent.
The weight of food and beverages in the headline index will decline sharply to 36.8 percent from 45.9 percent in the current 2012-based series
A key change in the new CPI series is a sharp reduction in the weight of food and beverages to 36.75 percent from 45.86 percent in the current 2012-based series
The new CPI series is expected to be released on February 12, according to the Economic Survey for fiscal year 2025-26
The Survey expects inflation to rise over the next two years. That may be less a warning signal and more a return to balance.
Small annual increases do not look dangerous, but over time they quietly overwhelm income, savings and good intentions.
Big-ticket items see quicker pass-through, while everyday goods show only modest relief
While inflation has remained below 2 percent for four consecutive months, not all items have been witnessing a decline
At 2.2%, the 2025 average is the lowest in 12 years. It is the final CPI print under the 2012 base year. Starting January reading (to be released on February 12), the CPI series will shift to a new 2024 base
After a year of easing price pressures and policy-led income support, economists say consumption momentum that strengthened in late 2025 is now feeding into the 2026 outlook.
The aim should be to look beyond immediate growth prospects to realising a long-term goal of transforming the economy through a relentless focus on five key parameters
With food prices easing and GST cuts filtering through, headline inflation averages just 1.8% till November
After the tariff blow who would have thought India’s growth rate would touch 8% in the first half of this fiscal? But a consequence of very low inflation pulling down nominal growth is a relatively high interest rate
A host of factors from inflation and weak wage increase have led to lower household savings
Old assumptions about expectations and targets can no longer be relied upon
Such a policy can be operationalized by adding a quantitative clause to whatever inflation target measure or formula mandated
The commerce minister also urges the industry to bank on self-reliance at a time when 'trade is being weaponised'
Economists predict another big miss in the current quarter after a surprisingly low inflation print in October
In November 13 edition of Moneycontrol Pro Panorama: GST cuts shine but food deflation rings alarm, Silver and Gold ETFs power up India’s passive fund AUM, India’s consumer brands and lessons to learn, and more
The moderation was driven by a 5% contraction in food inflation, extending a deflationary streak that began in June
October marks lowest reading in current series since 2013; RBI trims FY26 inflation forecast to 2.6%
