Ahead of the presentation of the 2024-25 interim Budget, Moneycontrol takes a quick look at the state of the Indian economy. Here, we examine the position of India's foreign exchange reserves and what the next financial year likely has in store for the authorities.
Speaking at Moneycontrol's Indian Family Business Awards 2022, Goyal said that the Indian economy is in good shape with comfortable foreign exchange reserves and high growth. He also said that the country has the advantage of a young demographic dividend
Das defended the Indian central bank's interventions in the foreign exchange market, adding that the RBI's reserves were "very comfortable"
The rating agency expects India’s current account deficit to widen to 3.4 percent of the GDP in FY23, nearly three times the FY22 level
The trend is unlikely to continue. Analysts expect the rupee to depreciate this month and likely surpass the 82.28 level amid continued strength in the dollar Index
Financial stability, liquidity stance and transmission are other important factors in the central bank radar.
Pan Gongsheng, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said at a financial forum in Shanghai on June 13 that the country's FX market is largely stable with FX reserves steadily rising.
Solid growth in US employment and an unexpected manufacturing uptick in China in March will have provided some comfort on Friday, but headwinds -- Japan's factory sector disappointed last month and euro zone inflation was anaemic -- invariably lurk nearby.
"India continues to remain relatively one of the best markets to invest in and has one of the best macros," says Ajay Bagga. He advises investors to invest in themes such as consumption, private sector banks with large retail portfolios, auto, IT, pharma and FMCG, among others
Dagong, one of China's top four ratings agencies, cut its rating on US sovereign debt to "A-" from "A" on Thursday, maintaining a negative outlook. It argued that the deal reached by Congress to end the partial government shutdown and raise the debt ceiling will only avert a crisis temporarily.
Going purely by foreign exchange reserves data, emerging Asia's top 10 economies, from China to the Philippines, received inflows worth USD 2.1 trillion between November 2008 and April 2013.
Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (BofA ML) has lowered its India gross domestic product (GDP) estimate for FY14 to 5.5 percent versus a 5.8 percent earlier, after the central bank announced a slew of measures to curb rupee liquidity.
Rupee will oscillate between "mild appreciation in good times and sharp depreciation in bad times" unless the twin deficits are addressed through a return to investment-led growth and reduced inflation, says Deutsche Bank.
The Reserve Bank of India has been seen intervening in the rupee forward markets, alongside its defence of the spot rupee, possibly to replenish its FX reserves and to replace domestic rupee liquidity, traders said
Any RBI move to supply dollars directly to India's oil importers is likely to have a significant positive impact on the rupee, at least initially, says Nomura.