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The Budget will herald a shift to a new fiscal anchor, the debt-to-GDP ratio. Given the indicative glide path to lower the ratio, interest rates are unlikely to decline sharply
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Economists say Centre will have to cut down on revenue and capital expenditure to achieve 4.4% of fiscal deficit target, as they see a sharp shortfall in tax revenues – more than Rs 1 lakh crore in FY26.
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IMF projections reveal India’s government spends and borrows at a scale closer to the U.S. and China than to its regional peers, creating a unique growth-versus-sustainability dilemma for policymakers
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IMF estimates central government's upcoming Budget may not further lower fiscal deficit figure as revenue dips and interest costs rise
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The fiscal maths of the Budget is under threat as nominal GDP growth decelerates
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Centre exhausts over 62% of annual deficit target by November amid slower tax collections
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PwC’s Ranen Banerjee says India’s evolving import mix limits pass-through even as the currency briefly breaches 90 per dollar
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Capital spending remained on track with the government having spent 55.1 percent of the full year target of Rs 11.2 lakh crore compared with 42 percent for April-October 2024.
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According to the IMF’s Fiscal Monitor, India’s fiscal consolidation is set to lose momentum after FY26, signalling deep-rooted structural limits in its public finances
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The government has exhausted 51.8 percent of the full-year capex target of Rs 11.2 lakh crore
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The Rs 2.7 lakh crore dividend transfer from the Reserve Bank of India has helped provide some cushion, but international agencies are expecting a slippage in this year's fiscal deficit.
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With recent GST reforms easing inflationary pressures and fiscal deficit projections intact, Mint Road gains more policy space while staying firmly data dependent.
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The note said that the Centre may slow down some of the government spending over the next two quarters, which may preserve the trend of fiscal consolidation. Aside of that, the GST reform may also impact the government's efforts to reduce debt.
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The rise in fiscal deficit follows an increase in capital spending since the start of the year by the central government.
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The commission is expected to come out with a report by October 31, covering a period of five years from April 2026.
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A higher-than-expected RBI dividend played a key role in containing the impact of increased capital expenditure during the quarter.
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The RBI dividend stands higher than the Rs 2.56 lakh crore the government had budgeted to receive from the central bank and public sector financial institutions.
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The central government’s fiscal deficit will consolidate gradually, reaching 4.4 percent of GDP in FY26, while the states’ deficit is expected to narrow to 2.6 percent
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FM Sitharaman outlined Centre's commitment to fiscal prudence, and said the government gave itself a 'year-by-year target' to bring down deficit below 4.5 percent by FY26. "That’s exactly what we’ve been following without fail, each year,” added the Finance Minister.
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India's capex lagged at Rs 8.1 lakh crore, and with a month to go, Centre may have to spend Rs 2.1 lakh crore in March to reach the Budget target of Rs 10.2 lakh crore for FY25.
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The capex spending at Rs 7.6 lakh crore was 74.4 percent of the revised estimate of Rs 10.2 lakh crore
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The Budget’s focus on boosting both consumption and capex is supportive for Indian equities, especially for healthcare, financials and consumer-related sectors
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Rejecting the notion that the Budget is skewed towards either consumption or capital expenditure, Tuhin Kanta Pandey tells Moneycontrol that the government has ensured a balanced approach
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S&P Ratings was the only agency to have recently revised India’s outlook to positive from stable earlier this year
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The deficit target surprised various market participants who had expected more generous spending to spur growth. But market experts say that there are other reasons for sticking to prudence.
