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The veteran Emerging Markets strategist said AI valuations are soaring but stable, while gold is rallying on momentum and de-dollarization trend, which investors should ride cautiously, eyeing sell triggers
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FIIs may have pulled out over $15 billion from India this year, but Helios Capital’s Samir Arora believes the country’s resilience against global shocks and domestic tailwinds like GST-led consumption and financial strength could bring flows back
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India is at a premium over EM peers, but that is hardly a signal to sell
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With Jefferies flagging the sharpest 12-month underperformance, investors eye policy reforms and demand revival for a market comeback.
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Emerging market fund inflows slowed amid geopolitical tensions, with key players seeing major redemptions, while gold and junk bond funds outperform.
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So far this year, the MSCI India index has risen just 2.33 percent, compared to a robust 9 percent gain in the MSCI Emerging Markets index. This divergence marks India’s first relative underperformance since 2020.
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Collective flows for all EPFR-tracked Emerging Markets Equity Funds hit a seven-week high going into the final days of May.
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“In the short run, the market is a voting machine. In the long run, it is a weighing machine” - Benjamin Graham
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To counter challenges post the pandemic, the world saw 'synchronous tightening' in response to shocks, Governor said. While these steps have ensured a global economic soft landing, but the risk of inflation is coming back, he added.
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While there is speculation that funds are moving from India to China, the data don't support this hypothesis.
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According to data from UnearthInsight, revenue share of emerging markets have gone up to 19.6% in FY24 up from 15.5% in FY14 and is expected to touch 22.2% in FY30. Most top IT companies reported double digit growth in revenue share from these markets.
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"When you consider the sheer magnitude of investable equities to choose from in the world's emerging markets, you realize that finding one that looks attractive enough to warrant investing your faith and assets in is as formidable a task as finding a needle in a haystack." - Mark Mobius
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Bitcoin has shown little movement in recent months. After a strong start to the year, it has remained stagnant. Since July, the cryptocurrency fluctuated between $56,000 and $63,000.
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After South Korea, the Nasdaq experienced the steepest decline, falling by 3.5 percent. This was followed by the S&P 500 and Nikkei, which dropped by 2.8 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively.
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If Fed chair Powell hints at lowering rates on July 31, emerging markets, particularly India, could see increased investment, say Kotak analysts
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Two thirds of the respondents expect emerging-market returns to match or beat those from developed markets over the next three years, with non-western SWFs more keen on the relative outperformance of developing assets, according to the survey conducted among 83 sovereign wealth funds and 57 central banks during the first quarter of 2024.
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Indian indices have surged nearly 10 percent in dollar terms this year, beating major emerging markets, but Wall Street has outperformed India on YTD basis.
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India's ROE is one of the highest in global markets. Only the United States has a higher ROE than India, whereas China's ROE has approximately halved over the past decade, according to Garner.
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Further data showing stable US economic activity with declining inflation will be supportive of softening bond yields and short-term interest rates and a weakening of the US dollar, all of which are positive for emerging market flows
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Addressing the substantial outflow of Foreign Institutional Investor (FII) money, Mobius noted that the uncertainty surrounding election results is causing FIIs to pull out money
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More than a dozen emerging-market currencies have tumbled versus the greenback this month, as the Federal Reserve looks poised to keep interest rates higher for longer.
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India is increasingly becoming a logical choice for investors globally amid a slowdown in China, says Mark Mobius. However, markets are yet to witness a significant shift in investment flows from China to India, he said
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Chris Wood explains that Indian equities are under owned among emerging market active funds since 2014
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In a first since 1988, China's foreign direct investment for the September quarter turned negative.
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US bond yields have reached the highest level since 2007. Interestingly, in a break from tradition, gold and crude prices are also rising along with the yields, thanks to the global geopolitical uncertainties.
