For equity investors, a big risk comes from a shift in global sentiment: sudden volatility in Japan often prompts investors to de-risk across emerging markets such as India even when fundamentals are unchanged.
India's relatively low correlation with the US and attractive bond valuations also make the nation’s notes among the asset manager’s top weightings in emerging markets, said Kenneth Akintewe, head of Asian sovereign debt at Abrdn Plc.
Rupee has underperformed Asian peers this month amid a yen trade unwinding and outflows from stocks. The central bank’s strategy to allow a weaker rupee may be aimed at correcting some REER overvaluation to boost India's trade competitiveness.
The flight to safety had intensified on Friday, August 2, after weak US economic data triggered worries that the US Fed may have been behind the curve in cutting rates and will now likely need to ease monetary policy aggressively to head off a recession.
The global carry trade has unravelled, roiling world stocks this week as Japanese Yen turned volatile after Bank of Japan’s rate hike, and fears that a US Fed may be late in moving to avoid a looming recession.
Global carry trades unwinding has also been boosting the Japanese currency and jolting markets around the world.
As uncertainty and volatility in financial markets surged, investors sought to reduce exposure to risky assets, including those financed through carry trades.
The Yen-funded carry trades were popular in emerging markets amid low volatility as investors bet Japanese rates would remain low for longer. But BoJ has raised rates for a second time at its latest meeting, signalling it may not be done yet.
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While the carry-trade strategy is popular with forex traders, it is also used by fund managers who deal in equities and commodities, and bonds.
If US real rates trend higher ahead of potential tapering, then EM FX could be affected, hurting inflows to emerging markets
There is already evidence of increased carry trade activity since September 18, when the US central bank surprised markets with its decision not to taper its asset purchases, say market watchers
RBS's Drew Brick explains why the dollar is holding up even though US growth isn‘t something to write home about and the impact on India if the Fed goes slow on its money printing operations
CNBC-TV18 spoke to some analysts on how the markets will react to LTRO 2.0. Check out their comments.