Prabhudas Lilladher's research report on Dabur India
We change our EPS estimates by -3.5%/-0.1%/0.1% factoring in adverse RM inflation in FY23 & impact of Badshah Masala acquisition. Dabur had flattish volume growth in 2Q (3-year CAGR 8.7%) with market share gains across 95% of portfolio. We expect sequential gross margin improvement from 3Q23 given lower inflation & calibrated price hikes. Rural continues to remain impacted by higher product prices and has lagged Urban markets after 5 quarters. Normal monsoons, good harvest & increase in MSP will drive demand in rural in near/medium term. Long term outlook remains intact given 1) Innovation led growth strategy with focus on 8 core brands 2) Increasing share in Foods & Beverages & Hair care category 3) LUP Innovations allowing DABUR to leverage its distribution 4) Strong rural distribution coverage of 100k+ villages in 1HFY23 5) Entry into Rs250bn branded spices category with Badshah Masala acquisition and 6) 4-5% incremental sales/year from e-com innovations. Dabur trades at 38.0x Sept24 EPS with 14.9% EPS CAGR over FY22-25, 23% ROE and 50% dividend payout.
Outlook
Retain accumulate with 12 month DCF based target price of Rs 615 (Rs 604 earlier).
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