Lok Sabha polls 2024: Here’s how the INDIA alliance is faring in crucial states

With two major INDIA bloc constituents- Trinamool Congress led by Mamata Banerjee and Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) having publicly distanced themselves from the anti-BJP front, the mega Opposition front, created to take on the NDA-led by the Bharatiya Janata Party seems to be on a sticky wicket.

Janata Dal (United) chief Nitish Kumar, who was once called the fulcrum of the opposition (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance or INDIA) bloc, has made a big switch to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar. Nitish Kumar’s move essentially marks an exit from the grand INDIA bloc.

The JD(U) chief’s move to abandon the Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) in Bihar not only has regional ramifications but also a telling effect on the overall future of the INDIA bloc.

With two major INDIA bloc constituents — the Trinamool Congress led by Mamata Banerjee and Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) — having publicly distanced themselves from the anti-BJP front, the mega Opposition front, created to take on the NDA-led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), seems to be on a sticky wicket.

Here’s how alignments across major states stack up for INDIA partners.

West Bengal

West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee has shut the door on the Congress, thereby leaving no room for further talks in West Bengal. Citing disagreement over the seat-sharing formula, the TMC supremo had publicly announced that the TMC would fight the general election for all of West Bengal’s 42 parliamentary seats.

Punjab

There has been a long period of love-hate statements and disagreements among the state leaders over an alliance. And now, according to the statements of Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann, the Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) have ended the scope for talks for an alliance in the state.

Mann, in a presser, said the AAP will win all 13 Lok Sabha seats in Punjab and that his party has nothing to do with the Congress in the state.

The Punjab chief minister's remarks come even as the national leadership of the two parties is engaged in seat-sharing negotiations in other states for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Bihar

There is little doubt that Nitish Kumar's return to the BJP-led NDA fold will have a significant impact on the Congress-led INDIA grouping. The Bihar episode comes amid disagreement within the INDIA bloc to reach a seat-sharing arrangement with regional forces Trinamool Congress and AAP. JDU's exit from INDIA will further push Congress on the back foot as regional parties are likely to use the Bihar developments to drive a hard bargain in seat-sharing.

Delhi

The seat-sharing talks between Congress and the AAP are still going on. However, both parties haven’t disclosed anything substantial in terms of the final agreement.

Congress’ big challenge

The fissures among key INDIA constituents are particularly challenging for the Congress top brass, preoccupied with Gandhi's yatra. Parties have used this situation to get a bigger say in West Bengal and Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP and Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav.

Many regional parties have accused the Congress of not engaging enough with the regional constituents.

In a televised interview with India Today, former chief minister of Uttar Pradesh and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav blamed the Congress for the ongoing fissures within the INDIA bloc, saying the enthusiasm the party needed to show in discussing and engaging with alliance partners was not visible.

"Congress should have come forward. The enthusiasm that Congress needed to show in discussing and engaging with the INDIA alliance was missing," said the socialist leader.

Haryana

On Sunday, Delhi's chief minister and AAP national convenor, Arvind Kejriwal, said that the state of Haryana is “seeking a big change” as the party decided to contest the 90-seat assembly elections alone. However, he stated that the Congress and the AAP will fight the Lok Sabha election as part of the INDIA bloc.

Uttar Pradesh

Marking a breakthrough in seat sharing between two constituents of the INDIA Bloc since its formation in July 2023, the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) have sealed their alliance for the upcoming parliamentary polls. The two parties have agreed on the number of seats to be shared but have not disclosed the names.

Reportedly, the SP chief announced that the party would give the Congress 11 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh. Sources in Congress said the party was still hoping for 15-16 seats.

Tamil Nadu

According to news reports, the first round of talks between the Congress and the DMK were satisfying. Tamil Nadu Congress Committee (TNCC) leader K S Alagiri also denied reports that the DMK had provided a list  of constituencies they wish to contest in the state.

Tamil Nadu has 39 Lok Sabha seats and of these, the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance had bagged 38 with over 53 per cent votes while one seat went to the AIADMK in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.

The DMK had won 20 of the 20 seats it contested, Congress bagged 8 of 9, and the rest of the seats were won by other alliance partners.