Explained: What Nitish Kumar’s exit from Mahagathbandhan means for JD(U) and Bihar

Nitish Kumar has switched camps five times since 2013

Nitish Kumar's decision to rejoin the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) marks an important shift in Bihar's political theatre with far-reaching implications.

The president of the Janata Dal (United) unequivocally attributed his resignation from the Mahagathbandhan, to the prevailing 'state of affairs' in the grand alliance of parties in the state opposed to the BJP as ‘not ideal’ for the continuation of the next government.

Kumar’s latest turnaround—he had been a staunch ally of the NDA before switching camps, and has changed alliances five times since 2015—not only underscores the volatile nature of Bihar's politics but also raises questions on why coalition partners are more than happy to accommodate the JD(U) chief.

Implications for Bihar politics

Kumar’s departure from the state anti-BJP combine also means his party’s exit from the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, the grouping of opposition parties that yields the catchy acronym INDIA. His decision has effectively altered political alliances and consolidated the NDA's dominance while fragmenting the opposition. The move should also offer both the JD(U) and the BJP an edge leading up to the Lok Sabha polls this year and the assembly election in 2025.

Statements by the JD(U) supremo following the resignation from the grand alliance on Sunday indicated he was seeking greater autonomy for state governance and the likelihood of leading the BJP-JD(U) coalition in the assembly election.

Why his return to NDA is driven by electoral imperatives

Speaking to Moneycontrol, Chandrachur Singh, associate professor of politics, Hindu College, said Kumar’s return to the NDA underscores his attempt to stay politically relevant. His dwindling voter base necessitates relevance, prompting a strategic realignment, said the academician.

The move offers electoral advantages, particularly in a crucial state like Bihar, enhancing the party's momentum and optics ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, added Dr Singh.

Underlining past numbers, he pointed out that the JD(U)'s electoral slide is starkly evident from the dwindling number of seats it has secured in successive Bihar elections. From a formidable 115 seats of 243 in 2010 to a meagre 43 in 2020, the JD(U)'s strength has plummeted, relegating it to the status of the third-largest force in the assembly.

Also Read: MC Explains: Nitish gifts NDA five seats in Rajya Sabha against his return

The Bihar chief minister’s latest move  appears to rise from his political survival instincts. His Sunday flip-flop comes days after he replaced Lallan Singh as JD(U) president, having got a whiff that sometimes ally, sometimes foe and Rashtriya Janata Dal veteran Lalu Prasad was working with Singh to install Prasad’s son Tejashwi as chief minister, is a perfect example of it, observed Dr Singh.

When BJP-JD(U) alliance worked 

It is not just Bihar, there is the larger picture too. The 2009 Lok Sabha polls saw the BJP and the JD(U) complementing each other, winning 32 of the 40 parliamentary seats in the state and 37.97 percent of the vote share.

The JD(U) had secured 20 of the 25 seats it contested then, while the BJP, its junior partner at the time, had won 12 of 15 it vied for.

Also Read: Nitish Kumar, the man of many U-turns: Here's a timeline of his changing political alliances

The rout in 2014

In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, however, the JD(U) contested 38 seats independently but won just 2 with 16.04 percent of the vote share. The NDA, comprising the BJP, Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) and one other regional party, won 31 seats, with more than double the JD(U)’s vote share, at 39.41 percent.

An example of near-perfect electoral outcome in 2019

Five years later, the NDA in Bihar now comprised the BJP, JD(U) and LJP. Of the 40 seats up for grabs, the BJP and JD(U) each contested 17 and the LJP six. With a combined vote share of 54.34 percent, the alliance swept the state, winning 39 of the 40 seats. While the BJP and LJP won all the seats they contested, the JD(U) fell short in 1 seat, which went to the Congress.

How JD(U) performed in last two assembly polls

In yet another avatar, Kumar contested the 2015 Bihar election in alliance with the RJD, Congress and Left. The Grand Alliance of Kumar and Prasad humbled the BJP and its allies, notching up a stunning 178 seats against 58 mustered by the NDA.

In the next state election, though, Kumar was back with the BJP and became the chief minister again despite the BJP capturing more seats (78) than the JD(U) (45). All went well till the veteran socialist sensed the BJP was attempting to split his part. He acted quickly, dumping the NDA on August 9, 2022, but stayed CM, again with the RJD and Congress backing.