Lok Sabha Election 2024: BJD candidate selection mired in rumors and speculation

Naveen Patnaik

Multiple permutations, combinations, and discussions have taken place between the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and the BJP, with an alliance appearing likely at one point and then falling apart.

Various conspiracy theories circulate regarding the sudden emergence of new candidates, and there are whispers that, in certain crucial constituencies, the BJD may opt to give the BJP a clear path to victory.

So far, the BJD has released the list of its candidates for 15 out of 21 Lok Sabha seats and 72 out of 147 assembly seats in Odisha. Let us examine what the list of candidates suggests at present.

The 3 most prestigious Lok Sabha seats are: Bhubaneswar, Puri and Sambalpur. The selection in Bhubaneswar exemplified a knee-jerk reaction by the BJD.

There has been much discussion about Manmath Routray, the BJD candidate chosen for the Bhubaneswar Lok Sabha constituency. Manmath, the son of senior Congress leader and Jatni MLA Suresh Chandra Routray, recently entered politics after resigning as an Air India pilot.

Manmath finds himself in direct competition with Aparajita Sarangi of the BJP, the incumbent MP. There was a lot of speculation when Manmath joined the BJD, and to everyone's surprise, Naveen Patnaik announced him as the party's candidate for Bhubaneswar within just two hours. Another contender in the mix is Shrimayi Misra, who had been actively campaigning in the constituency for the past six months.

Ashok Panda, a state government minister and MLA from Ekamra assembly constituency, even publicly endorsed Shrimayi as the party's Lok Sabha candidate and urged people to support her. Her campaign posters were also prominently displayed.

And then came the sucker punch when she was given marching orders. Local political analysts suggest that when Shrimayi was being considered, the BJD had anticipated an electoral alliance and expected to secure the Bhubaneswar constituency. However, the political landscape swiftly shifted, and it became apparent that Aparajita would overshadow Shrimayi due to her unfamiliarity with the area.

Manmath got the nod as he is not only from Bhubaneswar but also from the Jatni assembly constituency within it. His father Suresh Routray is a Cong MLA from here.  BJD hopes the son would benefit from his father’s goodwill.

In Puri too, there is a cloud over why former Mumbai Police Commissioner Arup Patnaik was given a ticket in place of Pinaki Mishra, who has been a four-time MP.  Arup was previously BJD candidate from Bhubaneswar LS seat and lost to BJP candidate Aparajita Sarangi by 23,000 votes.

This time he fences with BJP's national spokesperson Dr. Sambit Patra, who had also contested from Puri and lost to Pinaki Mishra by only 11,000 votes. The canny Sambit has maintained regular contact with Puri in the last 5 years. But Arup is from Delang, which is part of Puri LS seat.

According to poll experts, Pinaki Mishra, a Supreme Court lawyer, was not denied a ticket but possibly chose to opt out of the race due to his significant presence in Delhi. Additionally, his reported association with the controversial Mahua Moitra from the Trinamool Congress may have also played a role in his decision.

As for Arup, another obstacle he faces is the prevailing factionalism within the BJD in Puri, involving two senior leaders and MLAs, Sanjay Dasvarma and Umballabh Samantrai. The infighting between these figures poses challenges for Arup's political prospects in the constituency.

But the Lok Sabha seat that is of key focus is Sambalpur. Here the battle royale is between one of the most influential leaders of BJD and the party's Organization General Secretary Pranab Prakash Das, aka Bobby Das. He takes on Union Education and Skill Development Minister Dharmendra Pradhan of BJP.

Bobby has been elected MLA from Jajpur assembly constituency thrice and has also been a minister in the new government. But he is contesting the Lok Sabha elections for the first time and that too from an area which is completely new to him. But in his capacity as party observer for Sambalpur district, he has been seen there frequently.

Pradhan is also not local. But he has been an MP from neighbouring Deogarh and the two assembly constituencies that were then within the Deogarh Lok Sabha constituency - Deogarh and Kuchinda - are now part of the Sambalpur seat.

Sambalpur is the epicenter of Western Odisha, where BJP's support base is strong. Previously, out of the 8 Lok Sabha constituencies in Odisha where BJP had won, 5 were in Western Odisha. One of these was Sambalpur.

This is the reason why the demand for creating a separate "Koshal" state for the areas of Western Odisha has been raised from time to time. Given this background, Bobby might have a hard time beating Pradhan.

However, the most discernible change is in the content of BJD posters and banners in the last few days. The legendary Biju Patnaik, the man after whom the party is named, has made a stunning comeback after going “missing”  for a while.  Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik retains his place.

But the disappearing trick revolves around  the CM’s right-hand man VK Pandian, whose mug shot has by and large vanished. There are twin aspects to it. A very senior journalist says, “Pandian being removed from the posters is a conscious decision.  And Pandian is a party to it. This has not been foisted on him.”

Senior Editor Sandeep Sahu feels, “the decision for course correction (to remove Pandian from the posters) may have been taken directly by the CM but no other 3rd party would have been involved.”

Veteran journalist Navin Das, says: “ Till now all posters had larger pictures of Pandian. At times even replacing the CM. But that scenario changed when the alliance fell through. The BJD prospects are weakening due to a pushback against the over-projection of Pandian. Large parts of the voters resent it. Pandian (who is a Tamilian) is seen as a negative factor.”

Another senior journalist said: “There is a lot of resentment throughout Western Odisha against the people of Coastal Odisha. They feel dominated by the coastal leaders.  And  they also feel that the government is always dominated by leaders from Coastal Odisha and Western Odisha is neglected.”

Let’s hit upon the “conspiracy” theories:

·  Overconfidence: On part of the BJD when the alliance talks were on.

·  Fear Psychosis: When the BJD realised the gloves were off.

·  Internal Conflicts: BJD may have announced new faces but many are progenies of former politicians.

So, while the window dressing is on, theories abound. It is being discussed that BJD wants to give a “walk-over” to Dharmendra Pradhan, Sambit Mahapatra and Aparajita Sarangi.

The BJD viewpoint is some LS seats could be sacrificed to retain hold in the state elections. And yet, dance the last tango with the BJP in Naveen babu’s time.