2024 Lok Sabha Polls: Inside BJP’s playbook to spoil TMC’s dream run in Bengal’s Birbhum

To put up an impressive performance against the Trinamool Congress in Birbhum, BJP is relying on a concerted strategy that showcases the candidate’s (Debasish Dhar) past performance in public service.

The Bharatiya Janata Party is leaving no stone unturned to challenge the Trinamool Congress in the upcoming parliamentary polls in West Bengal.

In a surprise move, the saffron party has pitted former IPS officer Debasish Dhar, who was suspended by the Mamata Banerjee government after the 2021 assembly elections, in a bid to halt TMC’s Satabdi Roy from winning a fourth consecutive term from Birbhum.

The Lok Sabha seat, located in Birbhum district known for Baul folk singers and numerous cultural fairs, was reserved for Scheduled Caste members from 1962 to 2004 but was declared a free seat from 2009. Of its 62% Hindus in Birbhum, around 30% comprise Scheduled Castes and 22% form Scheduled Tribes. The 37% Muslim population, a majority of which is aligned to the ruling Trinamool Congress.

An impressive show in the constituency will not only be a morale booster for the saffron party, but will add momentum to their campaign in Bengal- a state which is crucial for the BJP to reach its stated target of 370 seats on its own. To put up an impressive performance against the Trinamool Congress in Birbhum, BJP is relying on a concerted strategy that showcases the candidate’s (Debasish Dhar) past performance in public service.

Debasish Dhar's experience in public service

Dhar was the superintendent of police of Cooch Behar during the 2021 assembly polls, when four persons died in firing by the central forces at Sitalkuchi in the district. After the Mamata Banerjee-led dispensation came to power for the third consecutive term, one of its first decisions was to suspend him. He was later put on compulsory waiting.Dhar resigned from service in March, and was subsequently named by the BJP as its Birbhum candidate.

Revisiting the verdict on 2014 and 2019

In the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections, Satabdi Roy from Trinamool Congress emerged victorious from the seat with a margin of 88,924 votes. Satabdi Roy got 654,077 votes with a vote share of 45.00 % and defeated Dudh Kumar Mondal from BJP who got 565,153 votes (38.97 %).

In the 2014 polls, the TMC parliamentarian secured the seat and was polled 460,568 votes with a vote share of 36.10%. CPM candidate Dr. Elahi Kamre Mahammad got 393,305 votes (30.82 %) and was the runner-up. Satabdi Roy defeated Dr. Elahi Kamre Mahammad by a margin of 67,263 votes.

Why BJP is sensing chance in Birbhum?

The absence of TMC’s former Birbhum district president Anubrata Mondal, whose strong-arm tactics and controversial comments lent both fear and colour to the political scene in Birbhum, seems to have made the electoral atmosphere a little lacklustre, but the BJP is seeing a level-playing field, owing to the new scenario.

Mondal was arrested by the CBI in 2022 in a money laundering case related to cattle smuggling in West Bengal. He is at present lodged in Delhi’s Tihar jail.

Can BJP overcome the political violence in the region?

Political violence is not new in West Bengal. Political analysts have written about how the CPI(M)-led Left Front government during its 34-year rule normalised a culture of violence to counter dissenting voices. 'Party- Society' model, developed by eminent political scientist Dwaipayan Bhattacharya,  helped create an all-controlling, and repressive, state model in which the ruling party mediated almost every social and economic activity in rural Bengal.

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How the BJP has been building its base in Birbhum

The BJP has had a presence in Birbhum for a considerable period of time. They were part of a grand alliance against the Left in Mayureswar during the 1990s. In 2018, they emerged as the key opposition party. However, many of their local leaders later aligned with the TMC, which in turn raised concerns about their credibility. Leftist forces have also gained traction in certain blocks such as Nalhati, Dubrajpur, Khoyrasol, Mohammad Bazar, Labpur, and Rampurhat.