Markets to remain under pressure, Nifty to find crucial support at 19,250: Experts
For continuing an uptrend, the Index needs to breach the immediate hurdle of 19,465 followed by 19,630; on the other side, and a convincing close below the mentioned support area will open the gate for 19,200 followed by 19,000, says Aditya Gaggar, Director of Progressive Shares
Indian equity market witnessed extended selling in the fourth straight week ended August 18 amid weak global cues, including concern over higher interest rates, Chinese slowdown, rising inflation, weakening currency and higher bond yields encourage investors to exit from the equity markets. Here's an estimate of the market trend for the week ahead from experts.
2/9
Ajit Mishra, SVP - Technical Research, Religare Broking | Fresh weakness in the US markets is largely weighing on the sentiment, however, the pace of decline is still capped. Though we see resilience in select pockets, we feel it is prudent to book some profits off the table and maintain a few shorts also. On the index front, the Nifty would face the first hurdle around 20 EMA, which lies around 19,500 levels. And, we are eyeing 19,100 levels to act as the next crucial support.
3/9
Jatin Gedia – Technical Research Analyst at Sharekhan by BNP Paribas | On the daily charts, the Nifty has closed decisively below the 40-day moving average (19,358) which is a sign of weakness. Because of the fall in the last couple of trading sessions, the Nifty has also closed in the negative for the fourth consecutive week and the weekly momentum indicator has also triggered a negative crossover which indicates that weakness is setting in on a higher time frame. The lower top lower-bottom formation is still intact and hence the downtrend is intact. On the downside we expect the Nifty to target levels of 19,100.
4/9
Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services | Markets have been consolidating in the absence of any positive trigger and consistent selling by FIIs. With Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech and more macro data lined up globally next week, we expect domestic as well as global markets to remain under pressure. Also, the RBI would release its meeting minutes on Thursday. However, action is likely to continue in the broader market along with sectorial rotation. Index heavyweight Reliance would be in focus as Jio financial services is set to be listed on Monday.
Amol Athawale, Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities | On the daily and intraday charts, the Nifty is holding a lower top formation and on weekly charts it has formed a small bearish candle, which is largely negative. However, on the lower side it is consistently taking support near the 50-day SMA or 19,250/64,750 (Simple Moving Average). A fresh sell off could be seen only after the dismissal of the 50 day SMA or 19,250 level, below which the index could slip till 19,200-19,100. On the flip side, 19,400 would act as a key resistance level for the bulls and above the same, the index could rise till 19,450-19,500.
6/9
Rupak De, Senior Technical analyst at LKP Securities | The index has consistently remained below its 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a sign that underscores the prevalence of a bearish trend. On the lower end, support is placed at 19,250. A fall below 19,250, may trigger a correction towards 19000 and lower. On the higher end, resistance was placed at 19,500.
7/9
Sameet Chavan, Head Research, Technical and Derivatives, Angel One | The first sign of revival would be confirmed once Nifty sustains above 19,370 – 19,400 levels, which may then push Nifty towards the next cluster of 19,550 – 19,650. On the flipside, 19,250 is to be seen as a critical support; because a drift below this would result in a sharp correction towards the major support zone of 19,100 – 19,000 (which seems unlikely at this moment). Traders should refrain from complacent trades and continue with one step at a time approach.
8/9
Aditya Gaggar, Director of Progressive Shares | A series of bearish candles on the weekly chart indicate a temporary pause in the northward journey of Nifty50. At the strong support area of 19,300 and 50 DMA, the Index has formed a Doji candlestick pattern on the daily chart which is considered as a reversal pattern. For continuing an uptrend, the Index needs to breach the immediate hurdle of 19,465 followed by 19,630; on the other side, and a convincing close below the mentioned support area will open the gate for 19,200 followed by 19,000.
Pravesh Gour, Senior Technical Analyst, Swastika Investmart | Technically, the Nifty index is exhibiting signs of weakness, characterized by a lower top formation. It is respecting its 50-day moving average (50-DMA), positioned around the 19270 mark. On the downside, immediate support rests at 19,250. A breach below this level could expose the Nifty to further declines, possibly targeting the 19,191 and 18,888 levels. Above 19460, we can expect some short covering towards the 19600 level. The re-establishment of bullish momentum hinges on a rebound above the 20-DMA, which lies at 19,650.
