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In holiday-shortened week, investors will take cues from Reliance AGM, auto sales, GDP data: Experts

The upside seems very limited in near term and if we break the 20 DEMA which is now placed at 17,418, a lot of these long positions which have been rolled from August to September series could see unwinding, says Ruchit Jain, Lead Research, 5paisa.com.

August 29, 2022 / 07:22 AM IST
In a highly volatile week, the Indian benchmark indices lost 1 percent each and also broke the five-week gaining streak, amid mixed global cues, rising dollar, and crude oil prices. Buying by foreign investors, however, provided some support on the downside. For the week, the BSE Sensex shed 812.28 points (1.32 percent) to end at 58,833.87, while the Nifty50 fell 199.55 points (1.12 percent) to close at 17558.9 levels. However, in this month till now, the Sensex and Nifty gained over 2 percent each.
In the highly volatile last week, Indian benchmark indices lost one percent each and snapped the five-week gaining streak amid mixed global cues and rising dollar and crude oil prices. Buying by foreign investors, however, provided some support on the downside. For the week, the BSE Sensex shed 812.28 points (1.32 percent) to end at 58,833.87 while the Nifty50 fell 199.55 points (1.12 percent) to close at 17558.9 levels. However, in this month till now, the Sensex and Nifty have gained over two percent each.
Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities | For bulls, 17725 would be the immediate resistance level and above which the Nifty index could move up to 17850-18000. On the flip side, 17500 would be the crucial support zone and on a fresh round of selling, the index could trade below 17500 and could retest the level of 17350 and on further down side the index could retreat to 17200.
Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President - Technical Research, Kotak Securities | For bulls, 17,725 would be the immediate resistance level, above which the Nifty index could move up to 17,850-18,000. On the flip side, 17,500 would be the crucial support zone and, on a fresh round of selling, the index could trade below 17,500 and could retest the level of 17,350 and on further downside the index could retreat to 17,200.
Ruchit Jain, Lead Research, 5paisa.com | The upside seems to be very limited in the near term and if we break the ’20 DEMA’ which is now placed at 17418, then lot of these long positions which have been rolled from August to September series could see unwinding. Hence, until the markets again break the hurdle of 17800 and 18000, we advise traders to avoid aggressive long trades. On the flipside, a close below the above mentioned 20 DEMA support could lead to next leg of down move which could extend towards 17100. Hence, once this support breaks, traders should look short opportunities from a short term perspective. Factors such as FII’s positioning, Dollar Index, momentum readings on the daily chart and the moving average supports are likely to drive the near term momentum and hence, traders are advised to keep a close tab on these factors.
Ruchit Jain, Lead Research, 5paisa.com | Upside seems very limited in the near term and if we break the 20 DEMA which is now placed at 17,418, a lot of these long positions which have been rolled from August to September series could see unwinding. Hence, until the markets again break the hurdle of 17,800 and 18,000, we advise traders to avoid aggressive long trades. On the flipside, a close below the above-mentioned 20 DEMA support could lead to the next leg of downside move which could extend towards 17,100. Hence, once this support breaks, traders should look at short opportunities from a short-term perspective. Factors such as foreign institutional investors' positioning, dollar index, momentum readings on the daily chart, and moving average supports are likely to drive near term momentum and hence traders are advised to keep close tabs on these factors.
Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives, Samco Securities | The upcoming trading week is expected to be jam-packed with activities. To begin, India’s GDP growth rate and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will become key indicators to assess the state of the domestic economy. From a global standpoint, markets can experience whipsaw movements as investors will be closely watching the US initial jobless claims and unemployment rate. For Nifty the short-term trend is still optimistic, but the market still remains elevated from the means at the same time, so the upside is likely to be limited. We believe the levels around 17400 on the Nifty are likely to serve as make or break levels. A break below this level may result in a retest of the 17100 level. Until then, traders should have a mildly bullish outlook.
Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives, Samco Securities | The upcoming trading week is expected to be jam-packed with activities. To begin with, India’s GDP growth rate and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will become key indicators to assess the state of the domestic economy. From a global standpoint, markets can experience whipsaw movements as investors will be closely watching the US initial jobless claims and unemployment rate. For Nifty, the short-term trend is still optimistic but the market still remains elevated from the means at the same time so the upside is likely limited. We believe the levels around 17,400 on the Nifty are likely to serve as make or break. A break below this level may result in a retest of the 17,100 level. Until then, traders should have a mildly bullish outlook.
Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking | The coming week is a holiday-shortened one and it marks the beginning of the new month also so participants will be eyeing important data like auto sales numbers. Before that, we’ve Reliance AGM on Aug 29 and core sector data and GDP data scheduled on Aug 31. Amid all, the performance of the global indices especially the US would remain on the radar for cues. It would be critical to see how our markets react to the US fall on Monday as we were showing tremendous resilience so far. A decisive breach of 17,300 would push the bulls on the back foot and Nifty might retrace towards the 16,900 zone else the consolidation would continue.
Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking | The coming week is a holiday-shortened one and it marks the beginning of the new month also, so participants will be eyeing important data like auto sales numbers. Before that, we’ve Reliance AGM on Aug 29 and core sector data and GDP data scheduled on Aug 31. Amid all, the performance of global indices, especially the US, would remain on the radar. It would be critical to see how our markets react to the US fall on Monday as we have been showing tremendous resilience so far. A decisive breach of 17,300 would push the bulls on the back foot and Nifty might retrace towards the 16,900 zone, else consolidation would continue.
Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives, Angel One | The Nifty has now closed precisely around the mid-point of the immediate trading range of 17750 – 17350 and since markets have lost their sheen, it would be difficult to predict the immediate path of action amid some global nervousness. In our sense, one should avoid trading aggressively within the range and till the time, we remain above 17350, there is no reason to worry for. Only a breakdown below this sacrosanct support would extend the corrective phase towards the major support zone of 17100 – 17000. Before 17350, we can see immediate support around 17450. On the flip side, 17700 – 17750 are the levels to watch out for. If bulls have to strengthen their stance, the Nifty needs to surpass the higher boundary with some authority. Till then it’s better to take one step at a time and ideally, the positioning must be on a lighter side. Since global markets are showing mixed directions and few global events are lined up, it would be important to keep a regular tap on these developments. If there is no aberration in the coming week, we may resume the higher degree uptrend soon.
Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives, Angel One | The Nifty has now closed precisely around the mid-point of the immediate trading range of 17,750 – 17,350 and since markets have lost their sheen, it would be difficult to predict the immediate path of action amid some global nervousness. In our sense, one should avoid trading aggressively within the range and till the time we remain above 17350, there is no reason to worry. Only a breakdown below this sacrosanct support would extend the corrective phase towards the major support zone of 17,100 – 17000. Before 17,350, we can see immediate support around 17,450. On the flip side, 17,700 – 17,750 are the levels to watch out for. If bulls have to strengthen their stance, the Nifty needs to surpass the higher boundary with some authority. Till then it’s better to take one step at a time and ideally, the positioning must be on the lighter side. Since global markets are showing mixed directions and a few global events are lined up, it would be important to keep close tabs on these developments. If there is no aberration in the coming week, we may resume the higher degree uptrend soon.
Rakesh Patil
first published: Aug 29, 2022 07:22 am
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